An Atlanta Braves MLB Trade Deadline Primer

Previewing the 2019 Atlanta Braves trade deadline

After an offseason that drove many Atlanta Braves fans bonkers, the Atlanta Braves enter July leading the National League East, 5 1/2 games ahead in the division, as well as one of only two teams in the National League with 50 wins entering the month.

Without the August trade deadline this year, this is the month for the Atlanta Braves to make any moves they want to in order to improve the team for the stretch run and the 2019 postseason.

With the trade deadline just 4 weeks away, let’s take a look at what this deadline will mean for the Atlanta Braves:

Looking back to look forward

To first gain an idea of what may be ahead in July, one must know what went on over the winter, when many Atlanta Braves fans were disappointed in the outcome of offseason trades and free agent signings.

While this offseason may have been a disappointment for fans, the front office laid some very important tracks on trades with multiple teams that are likely to be trading this summer. Those teams have already discussed prospects that they like with the Atlanta Braves front office along with given an idea of their price for certain players and combinations of players.

Very significant trade deals got close to fruition before something small derailed things in the offseason, but the sides have kept talking, which means some of these deals that are completed this next month could have their roots in discussions from the offseason, when Braves fans were often frustrated by what they saw as “inactivity” by the front office.

What do the Atlanta Braves actually need?

On offense, the team has been rolling. The only National League team averaging more runs per game is the Colorado Rockies. The Atlanta Braves currently are averaging 5.36 runs per game, which is an incredible offensive force and a sign of just how deep the lineup is from 1-8. Only the Brewers and Dodgers have hit more home runs in the National League, so it’s not just slap and slash scoring, either. In the National League, the Braves rank 4th in batting average, 2nd in on-base, 3rd in slugging, 2nd in OPS, and 3rd in OPS+.

There really are no weak spots in the lineup or bench. The biggest concern I could see is potentially depth at the catcher position. Having the pair of catchers share the load for the Atlanta Braves has been excellent this season, but if either of them were to get injured as the postseason closed in, I’m not sure if the team would be comfortable with Alex Jackson as their primary backup catcher.

That brings us to pitching. The Braves are currently straddling the line of league-average in runs allowed per game. The ERA for the team is lower, but the overall runs allowed is 4.84 runs per game.

Breaking down the team may truly surprise fans. Starting pitching has posted a 4.59 ERA on the 2019 season, which ranks 17th overall among major league clubs overall, 11th in the National League. The starters have posted the highest walk rate and the second-lowest strikeout rate among starting staffs in the game.

The real target of Atlanta Braves fan vitriol from the offseason (and often continuing) is the bullpen. However, the Braves bullpen ranks 3rd in all of baseball in ERA and first in the National League with a 3.79 ERA. While the ERA is low, the walk rate has been the 5th-highest among NL squads. The bullpen has countered that, however, with one of the highest strikeout rates in the league, giving the Atlanta Braves bullpen a K/BB rate that is 7th in the NL.

What teams will be selling?

The obvious sellers from my piece on the deadline that ran this week are the 6 teams that opened July with 50 or more losses and two more than likely won’t have a chance to make the playoffs due to the distance from the playoffs that they already have in the standings.

Those teams are the Blue Jays, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Mariners, Marlins, Giants, and White Sox.

There are some other teams that are in a position that they could be in a selling position by the end of the month with an extended losing streak. Teams like the Reds, Cardinals, and Pirates will likely see some separation begin to happen in their division this month, giving more clarity to those teams as to which of them could potentially hang with the Cubs and Brewers down the stretch.

The Mets, Diamondbacks, Padres, and even big-money powers like the Nationals and Red Sox are currently on the outside looking in of the playoff race with some notable contracts coming up this offseason that could be interesting trade pieces, even if they choose not to sell off completely.

Who will be in Atlanta Braves uniform in August?

I’d love to have a crystal ball and tell you the exact player who ends up donning a Braves uniform by the end of the month. I know the front office has worked endlessly on the rotation since the final game of the playoff series with the Dodgers, looking to find a playoff-proven starter and a potential ace to add to the rotation. Dallas Keuchel certainly provides the former, and his impact really cannot be felt on the overall team numbers quite yet. However, there’s still the point of that “ace”.

Mike Soroka has certainly stepped up to be that sort of pitcher this year, and my personal comparison for Mike for some time now has been Corey Kluber, who may have only Madison Bumgarner in recent memory to look up to as far as postseason performances from a starting pitcher. However, after the injury issues that Soroka had last season, the team will likely want to protect his arm and not overload him with innings. He’s already thrown 84 2/3 innings on the year, so it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s likely about the same amount of innings left in the regular season that the team would like to see Mike throw.

That means going out of the organization to find that ace-level arm. If he was healthy, a guy like Corey Kluber could be an option, but he’s really not, and from all accounts, there’s been no change in his price from the Indians. His teammate Trevor Bauer has some of the most impressive stuff in the game, but he also has a very strong tie to his regimen, and it shows in his stats, as he’s got a 2.89 ERA this season on 4 days rest (normal starter’s rest) and a 6.25 ERA on 5 or more days rest this season (he’s not pitched on less rest). The other issue is that Cleveland currently sits in a Wild Card spot in a division with three other teams not likely (or really trying) to compete in 2019, so they very well may not be at all involved in the trade market this month as they’ll still be competitive through the end of the month.

There is not a pitcher from one of the certain “selling” teams that I see as an ace, and that includes Madison Bumgarner, who is giving up the most hard-hit balls in the entire National League (45.7% of balls in play, 15% above his career rate) and is seeing balls hit off him much more often hit into the air (35.8% ground ball rate, nearly 10% lower than career rate), which is a really bad combination.

There are a few names that could become very intriguing if their teams were to fall out of the race and they were made available – Zack Greinke, if his money could be figured out, Jameson Taillon, and Mike Minor.

While each has their own reasons why they’d be tough to acquire, each brings something unique and would be a member of the Atlanta Braves for more than just the rest of 2019 as each has control at least through 2020. For what it’s worth, the Braves made significant in-roads with each team this offseason on a deal, though whether that deal was on that pitcher, in particular, is not exactly clear.

Ben’s Atlanta Braves prediction

The Atlanta Braves seem to be focused fairly heavy on doing “one-stop shopping”, based on the discussions that are currently going on around the league. That could mean a host of options would be in play. Combinations like Ken Giles and Marcus Stroman from Toronto, Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith from San Francisco, Felipe Vazquez/Keone Kela and Jameson Taillon/Jordan Lyles from Pittsburgh, Mike Minor and Jose Leclerc from Texas, and Matthew Boyd and Shane Greene from Detroit.

Of course, the team could choose to pursue one starter in one spot and get two upgrades elsewhere, like getting both Will Smith and Sam Dyson from the Giants, for instance.

The best prediction I can give right now is that the Atlanta Braves will do anything they can to hold onto their top 3 prospects while also bringing in players to both impact 2019 and beyond.

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