Video Scouting Report on San Francisco Giants prospect Casey Schmitt
The last San Diego State player who went in the first two rounds of the major league baseball draft before the San Francisco Giants selected Casey Schmitt in the second round of the 2020 draft was Stephen Strasburg, who was selected first overall in 2009. Now, he’s having a breakout season in 2022. Is he for real? Let’s take a look!
Background
Casey Shawn Schmitt is a California guy through and through, born in San Diego, graduating from high school in Chula Vista, and then attending San Diego State.
Schmitt originally got on the map for many with a huge performance at the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2019. A two-way player at the time, Schmitt won playoff MVP as a third baseman and closer that summer, putting him on the map for the 2020 draft.
The 2020 shortened season happened, leaving Schmitt with no time to increase his stock potentially into the first round. However, the Giants nabbed him with the 12th pick in the second round that season, the 49th overall selection in the draft.
Schmitt hit .247/.318/.406 in 64 games and 280 plate appearances with an 8% walk rate and 16% strikeout rate in 2021 with San Jose playing through a broken nose and then having his season ended early in August by an injured wrist.
The 2022 season has opened with Schmitt hitting extremely well, flirting with .300 and showing improved power at the plate. Could he be a legit third baseman of the future for the Giants?
Scouting Report
To preface each report, I do all my scouting reports through video views. I intentionally choose games to watch defensive plays if possible on video, but otherwise, I simply choose multiple games throughout the season to view, attempting to get a cross-section of successful and unsuccessful plate appearances to give a balanced report.
Size/Build
Schmitt is listed at 6’2″ and 215 pounds. That appears accurate, though he carries his weight well, with a wide shoulder and hip base that leaves him looking fairly lean at that weight.
Schmitt is a right-handed hitter and throws with his right hand as well.
Contact (50)
Schmitt has a very quick, direct swing that does not have any hitches or pauses along the path. Schmitt’s stance is calm with a slight bat wag until he takes a low step and plants his foot down basically right back where it started, just a slight step forward toward the pitcher. The only thing he is prone to a bit in his footwork is stepping slightly into the bucket, pulling his otherwise-centered body out of alignment.
His hands are quick and can adjust mid-swing to break. I did catch him multiple times getting thrown off by a breaking pitch but using his wrists to spoil the pitch by fouling it off to get another pitch. His wrist strength allows him to fight for the best pitch in an at-bat, even when he’s being aggressive, which he’s working on this season as well – attempting to work the count for the best pitch of a plate appearance.
Power (45 game/55 raw)
In his collegiate career and even during his first pro experience in 2021, Schmitt was a guy who was weight-centered at the beginning of his swing and would end up on his front leg often as he was making contact. This year, Schmitt has settled deeper into his back leg in his stance, and it’s allowed him to be more in the center of his frame as he makes contact. This can get off if he takes too long of a stride in his initial load to the swing.
Typically, as mentioned earlier, Schmitt will do a lift of his leg as the ball is on the way and set it down just outside his left shoulder. The farther forward he lands with that leg, however, the more out of control his body tends to end up within the swing, which can lead to him being too far back and sending balls straight into the air or too far forward in his frame and not being able to get any leg behind the swing.
While he has done better in accessing some power within his swing, the consistency of his hip release due to consistent stride is the biggest thing holding him back right now from continually striking the ball with the above-average force that he can flash in spurts.
Eye (50)
While Schmitt has excellent pitch recognition, seeing spin well and adjusting enough to at least foul off breaking stuff and stay alive, he struggles at times with plate recognition, especially right at the belt level. He has drawn a walk in more than 10% of his plate appearances this season, which is a notable increase, but that’s also come with a 5% rise in his strikeout rate as well.
Speed (40)
While he’s an average runner when underway, Schmitt’s first step is below-average and his acceleration is definitely below-average, indicating that he’s likely not going to be a guy you will worry about stealing bases. He is smart on the basepaths, however, and in multiple games in my viewing went from first to third and once went second to home on singles that required an instinctive jump on the basepaths to make it with his speed.
Defense (70)
This is where Schmitt absolutely shines. While he has a wide frame and may not be the most fleet of foot, his instincts are absolutely top-notch. With Eugene this season, he’s even handled short double-digit times already. He’s got very soft hands and vacuums up anything near him. He also displayed very impressive range in a pair of games viewed of him playing shortstop.
Without the speed to cover range, he does rely on incredible instincts, and there would be some concern that as he loses a step, his defense could take a big step back, but natural instincts can cover for a lot of age-related loss as long as he can keep up his body.
Arm (60)
Schmitt’s arm is a no-doubt plus arm, and he typically is very accurate, but I ended up catching three of his six errors this season, all of which were throwing errors. Two were due to wet conditions, which can be forgiven, but one was due to him being in a hurry when he really didn’t need to be as he had plenty of time to nail the runner.
MLB Comp
His son just signed the largest contract in Pittsburgh Pirates history, but many forget just how consistent and valuable a player Ke’Bryan Hayes‘ father Charlie Hayes was over the course of a 14-year career.
Hayes played nearly a third of his career games in Philadelphia in the early 1990s, and he was really finding his hitting ability at that time, and he had some very inflated numbers in the early days of the Colorado Rockies franchise, but the guy you see catching the final out in 1996 for the New York Yankees to begin their dynasty is Hayes.
He would go on to play another four seasons as a platoon player with good contact skills, mediocre power, and elite defense, albeit not at the other-worldly level that his son plays.
Future Role
Schmitt’s retooled ability to drive the ball could allow him to be just a tick better with the bat, probably working to a 100 wRC+ range, while Hayes was more in the 90ish range at his peak. Add in the glove, and you have a guy who could end up as a 2-4 fWAR player per year at the hot corner.
While that’s not in the Manny Machado/Nolan Arenado/Jose Ramirez/Austin Riley/Rafael Devers stratosphere, it’s consistently in the top half of the league at the position, and that could lead to a very long career.
Benjamin Chase
After 6 years of writing for FanSided on various sites and offering contributions to various other websites, family changes have encouraged me to start this site. I spend a ton of time watching baseball at all levels, but I love watching minor league baseball on milb.tv as I'm hours away from the closest minor league team. This is an effort of all those games I enjoy on a daily basis!
