Video Scouting Report on Atlanta Braves RHP Victor Vodnik

After 15 games pitching out of the bullpen (he has one start on the year, but it was as part of a relief day in a doubleheader), Atlanta Braves prospect Victor Vodnik will make his first start of 2019 Monday, June 24th. Let’s take a look at the young righty.

Background

Victor Vodnik (birthdate: 10/9/1999) was the Atlanta Braves 14th round selection out in the 2018 draft out of Rialto High School. The coverage on Vodnik would have certainly been higher on a pitcher with mid-90s velocity in Southern California, a known prospect hotbed, but Vodnik was knocked for mechanics that concerned a number of teams, allowing him to slip to the Braves and sign on the very last possible day for just a bit over slot $200,000 signing bonus.

His first assignment was to the Atlanta Braves Gulf Coast League affiliate. Most would see 4 games, 4 2/3 innings, and 5 runs allowed and not think much of the performance, especially from a 14th round selection, but he caught attention with his velocity and his 1/9 BB/K over those 4 2/3 innings.

Vodnik received very positive reports out of fall instructs for the work he was doing with coaches on his delivery, seemingly unleashing even more velocity along with getting into professional nutrition and lifting. He was reported to be reaching triple digits with his fastball, showing excellent break on his breaking pitch, and most importantly, taking to his changes in his delivery very well.

This season, the Braves were aggressive with Vodnik, moving him up to Rome, and he’s not shown any issue with the assignment. He’s made 15 appearances, tossing 42 1/3 innings, with a 1.70 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.75% BB rate, and a 28.75% K rate.

Scouting Report

Size/Build

Vodnik is listed at 6′ and 200 pounds, and both numbers look right, having put on good weight since being selected by the Braves. He is extremely athletic, and you can see it immediately in his physicality.

Delivery

Vodnik’s delivery to open the season was purely out of the stretch, but he’s worked on his delivery out of the windup, and it’s become much better over the year.

He has a long kick back and a very slight leg lift, only about mid-thigh high, with his left leg. From that point at the top of his delivery, he corks his hips back toward second base just a touch, seemingly tensioning the spring, so to speak, before he explodes with a very large step toward home, finishing in a high 3/4 arm position.

He has a strong finish due to his effort that puts him to the first base side, but his impressive athleticism does leave him in a good position to field, and he is a very good fielder at his position.

This season, Vodnik has made his biggest deliveries from the stretch. Early in the season, he had a low leg lift and a more pronounced twist at his hips than in his delivery before exploding with the same long leg stride and high 3/4 arm angle. His stride length in that delivery was inconsistent, leading to fastballs left up in the zone and/or breakers that he spikes, depending on whether he over-strides or under-strides.

He’s changed his stretch delivery significantly, working with nearly a slide step, barely lifting his leg off the ground, but coming tall once he receives the sign, then kicking out toward the third base line to generate his hip/torso twist and then pushing that foot toward home plate, never really getting the left foot more than about 6-9″ off the ground seemingly. That has definitely cleaned up his stride length and improved his speed to the plate, something that was a bit of a concern with runners on base.

Control (55)

At this point, Vodnik is still control over command in his pitching, but he’s made significant strides. In the 7 games I watched for this report, he went from a guy who was pounding the zone but often missing his catcher’s glove noticeably to a guy who may miss the glove, but it was missing the glove by hitting shin-high outside rather than knee-high outside.

His fastball has made tremendous strides in command, but he’s still definitely working with the other pitches to get there. With his athleticism, he has the potential to work to plus control as he continues ironing out his delivery.

Fastball (70)

Vodnik primarily uses a four-seam fastball that sits 93-95 in longer stints and can run up to 97-98 in 3+ inning stints. When he’s had shorter work, he’s topped triple digits with the fastball and sat more in the 95-97 range with the pitch. From his high delivery and long drive to the plate, he creates extension and plane to the plate, generating a ton of groundballs (55.6% this year). He gets good spin on the pitch, making it nearly impossible to hit up in the zone and very difficult to square as evidenced by only 18.2% of the balls put in play on Vodnik this year go to centerfield, good evidence that guys aren’t getting truly squared up on his pitches.

Changeup (45)

While I’m not a fan of his current change, the delivery is there to have something very good here in the future in this organization, especially in conjunction with his fastball that he can get good plane on (impressive for 6′ tall). I’d say the pitch as he currently throws it is a potential future average pitch, but there’s simply nothing special about it, and it’d definitely be a 4th pitch.

With his excellent extension, arm speed, and high arm angle, Vodnik would be a very good candidate for a potential move to a split-finger as a fourth pitch to use as his change, even if he throws it as a straight split fastball.

Curveball (55)

Having just a slider coming out of high school, Vodnik now works with a pair of breaking balls, and while his slider has much more polish, I think the hard curve with depth could end up being his better pitch, coming in around 80 MPH, giving him 15-20 MPH velocity gap from his fastball and the depth to really end up generating swing and miss and weak swings both down the line from the pitch. Many pitchers now have a hard curve/depth slider that looks very similar, so this could simply be Vodnik learning to throw a depth slider, but the break on the pitch indicates curve.

For right now, he gets excellent 12-6 (to be exact, roughly 11:30 to 5:30, but not fully 11-5) depth on the pitch, working best when it seems to start waist-high and dive for the bottom of the zone. His struggle is getting consistent depth on the pitch, sometimes seeing what would be referred to as one-plane drop and sometimes not even dropping through a single plane. Working on consistent feel on the pitch as well as command will determine the future of the pitch for Vodnik.

Slider (55)

This is definitely Vodnik’s preferred secondary pitch, and it’s a good one, though he has struggled at times with overthrowing the pitch, especially after he added the weight this offseason and seemingly added a few MPH to go with the extra muscle. When he does that, the pitch flattens out, even if it does run up to 90 MPH.

The pitch is better suited roughly thigh-high and about 83-86, where Vodnik gets tremendous late break on the pitch, with it looking like a fastball until the very last moment.

https://youtu.be/o5uxsjhRfUQ

MLB Comp

A guy at 6′ or smaller with good stuff is often compared to a handful of token guys, and while one of them definitely matches, watch the above video on Juan Guzman. Even in a playoff game, Guzman worked very quickly, focusing heavily on his fastball with a big stride and high arm angle giving him good plane on the fastball and his incredible slider.

Guzman has a similar build and finishes very similar to Vodnik on the mound as well. While he’s not a perfect comparison, their pitching styles once on the mound are very comparable. (BTW, love seeing John Olerud and the helmet at first in the Guzman video.)

As far as stuff is concerned, the “token comparison” that Vodnik does fit is Tom Gordon. Gordon was similarly built to what Vodnik is, though Gordon was roughly 3-4″ shorter. When he came up, Gordon had an impressive fastball that he focused with a slider and curve primarily, using his change sparingly.

Interestingly, as I mentioned that I saw Vodnik potentially having future success with a split-finger, it was another fastball variation that added roughly 5 years to Gordon’s career as a 4th/5th option when he learned the cutter as a member of the New York Yankees. Gordon did begin his career as a starter, and many forget just how long he stayed in the rotation before heading to the bullpen as he made over 200 major league starts in his career. Gordon is one of just 5 pitchers in baseball history with at least 125 wins and 125 saves in his career.

Future Role

If he works with his fastball and his two breaking pitches, Vodnik has a future role as a dominant reliever, one that could potentially work multiple innings or be very good in a closer role. However, he has the three-pitch mix that could add a fourth above-average pitch and allow him to be a mid-rotation starter or even better.

The move to the rotation should be interesting to watch with Vodnik just to watch his sequencing. He’s definitely used more curves with the slider as he’s pitching longer outings, so adding in the potential to go 5-6 innings could force the use of that 4th pitch.

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