Starting 9: What we know at Memorial Day

Memorial Day: What we know

The old adage in baseball is that “nothing is real until Memorial Day.” That phrase really became real for me when I started playing fantasy baseball in my teens (back in the early 1990s when I played from a Baseball Weekly each week). Well, Monday was Memorial Day, so what do we know about the 2019 season?

https://youtu.be/gukVBqokeZ8

Opener: The Twins are for real

Even after Monday’s loss, the Minnesota Twins are tied for the most wins in the major leagues with 36 and have the best winning percentage in the majors at .679. Already, they’ve opened up a 10 game lead over the second-place Indians, who are a game under .500 and trending down.

While many may see the hapless division the Twins are playing in and assume that their success is primarily due to their poor competition, but the Twins are not just skimping by on teams. Currently, the Twins lead all of MLB in scoring with 319 runs scored in 53 games. No other team, regardless of whether they have more games played, has even cracked the 300 run mark yet. Their run differential is a +110, which is 20 runs better than the next closest team.

These Twins are getting those numbers in ways that recent teams in Minnesota certainly haven’t. On the mound, the Twins are seeing not just bigger velocity numbers on the radar gun, but also more effective velocity with new pitching coach Wes Johnson. The last time the Twins won the American League Central, they averaged 91.9 MPH on fastballs, but those fastballs were collectively worth nearly 24 runs under replacement for the team while the sliders were quite valuable. This season’s iteration averages 92.9 MPH, but even more impressive is that already, those fastballs have been worth 22 runs over replacement as a unit.

On top of that, this is a team hitting the ball with more authority than any Twins team I can ever remember. Minnesota has 105 home runs on the season (the only MLB team who has hit over 100 home runs on the year after Monday’s games), giving them a pace of over 320 on the year. That would nearly be 100 more than their previous franchise record for home runs in a season, so this is definitely a type of offense that has rarely been seen in Minnesota!

On Deck: The youth movement continues

The influx of top prospects to MLB was covered more in-depth in a previous Starting 9, but the trend has definitely continued. Currently, there have been 102 total debuts this season, 18 of which appeared in one of the three major top 100 lists before the season (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB Pipeline).

In 2018, only 20 players who had made one of the top 100 lists entering the 2018 season debuted during the year, which tells you just how impressive the influx of young talent in 2019 has been so far, and it’s really not slowing down at all.

In the Hole: The top pick in the 2018 draft was well-earned

Casey Mize was the consensus top player heading into the 2018 draft, and he’s certainly shown to be worthy of that draft slot. He opened his season in high-A, and he moved up to AA after just 4 starts. In 10 starts on the season, he’s posted a combined 0.97 ERA between the two levels over 64 2/3 innings, with a 0.57 WHIP and an 8/60 BB/K ratio.

He’s not the only one doing well from the 2018 first round, either. Third overall pick Alec Bohm has raked between both A-ball levels for Philadelphia, Jarred Kelenic is dominating low-A in the Mariners system, Grayson Rodriguez has 61 strikeouts in 43 low-A innings with Baltimore, Jordan Groshans and Nick Madrigal are putting up huge OBP numbers, the Royals quartet of college pitchers from the first round (Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, and Kris Bubic) have dominated, Seth Beer has been crushing the ball for Houston up to AA, and Padres infielder Xavier Edwards has been one of the most electric players in the Midwest League.

Cleaning Up: AAA balls fly now

Minor league baseball changed the AAA level to the same ball as MLB baseballs, and they’ve seen a similar rise in the output of home runs across all of AAA. The individual minor league leaderboard for all players includes just two non-AAA players in the top 10. The numbers continue down the leaderboard as 15 of the top 20 are AAA players and 23 of the top 30 individual home run hitters in all of minor league baseball have played all of their baseball in AAA this season.

Through Memorial Day, Gwinnett leads the International League with 88 home runs. That would not have been the lowest-ranked team in the IL in 2018 for the full season, and the team is on pace for 242 home runs, which would be nearly 100 more home runs than the IL’s leading team in 2018, Louisville, had when they hit 145 last season.

Already considered an offense-heavy league, the Pacific Coast League are seeing even bigger returns, as they already have El Paso with 114 home runs. That would have ranked El Paso above the bottom 5 in home runs in the PCL for all 2018 with just that number, but their pace is over 300 home runs right now, and the tied team leaders in 2018 in the PCL had just 173. At their current pace, El Paso will top that number before July.

Hot corner: The new AAA balls change how we should look at pitchers

In talking with a few pitchers who have made the jump to the majors in the last two years, they have noted how steep the learning curve is for pitchers when they get the new ball in their hand as it feels “different from any other ball I’ve ever thrown.”

That’s led to multiple top prospects struggling with their first exposure to the major leagues the last few seasons before learning more how to best match the new ball and their natural pitching to generate success. For many, it’s required significant changes. Now, those changes are happening in AAA.

Take the example of Forrest Whitley in the Houston Astros organization. Whitley was ranked as a consensus top-10 prospect and widely seen as the top pitching prospect in the game due to his elite spin rates on his pitches. He has struggled mightily to generate that spin with the lowered seams on the new AAA balls, and that has led to a 12.21 ERA over 24 1/3 innings thus far this season. The #5 pick from the 2017 draft, Kyle Wright, made the majors for the Braves in 2018 based on excellent movement on his pitches, but he’s struggled in the majors and minors this year to the tune of a 7+ ERA at both destinations.

Teams once would skip elite pitching prospects over AAA due to the fact that many AAA lineups were stocked with what are known as “AAAA players”, guys who are borderline major leaguers, but really too good to still be in AAA, so they hit very well at that level. Facing hitters like that really didn’t give a pitcher a good idea of what a major league hitter would be typically, so teams often chose to bypass the level with the elite arms, getting them straight from AA to the major leagues.

Instead, in two cases this spring already, I’ve had a team representative mention that their organization is intending to send pitching prospects for an extended look at AAA before coming to the majors so they can get a taste with the new ball before heading to the major leagues as they’ve noticed the difference at the big league level and minor league level. It should help pitchers have more confidence as they eventually make their big league debuts, at least in theory.

Shortstop: The youth movement at the position continues

Already some of the elite players in the entire game play at shortstop, and this year has seen even more under-30 players making a big impact from the position.

Of the 21 players who have posted a 1.0 or better bWAR this year and played at least 10 games at short, only 2 are 30 or over. On top of that, shortstops dot the leaderboards, with 26-year-old Tim Anderson leading the American League in batting average, 25-year-old Jorge Polanco is leading the American League in hits, and 23-year-old Adalberto Mondesi is leading the American League in triples and stolen bases.

Around the league, the position is heavy with young players, with the average and median starting shortstop in the league at 26 years old.

Left Out: Slow starts don’t mean lost seasons…except when they do

Last season, on Memorial Day, Paul Goldschmidt was hitting .208/.324/.380 and Matt Carpenter was hitting .221/.332/.423. Both ended up finishing in the top 10 of National League MVP voting. Yet we don’t seem to learn from that example every year.

Even in the prospect world, players are dismissed due to slow starts. Top Twins draft pick Trevor Larnach finished April hitting .244/.297/.322 without a home run. He’s turned things around in May, though, as he’s hit .321/.424/.548 on the month with 8 doubles, a triple, and 3 home runs. Angels outfield prospect Brandon Marsh opened the 2019 season hitting .220/.312/.256 in April. He’s exploded with a .344/.459/.475 line in May. Incredibly, Marsh has only had 14 plate appearances against younger pitchers this season as he’s one of the youngest players at AA.

On the other hand, Phillies pitching prospect JoJo Romero came into the season as one of the most exciting arms in the Phillies farm system. He was coming off a season where he put up 100 strikeouts over 106 2/3 innings at 21 in AA. However, he opened 2019 in AAA and the Phillies recently demoted him to AA after posting a 9.64 ERA at AAA. He’s still struggling at AA, posting an 8.18 ERA in his two starts since his demotion.

Though he was the highlight prospect in the trade that brought James Paxton to the Yankees, Justus Sheffield has simply not solved his control problems throughout the season. Though he’s struggled in the past with control to some degree, he’s currently posting a walk rate of nearly 14%.

Center Of It All: Breakouts are always fun

One of the great parts about following young players is the breakout players that pop up each season. This year has seen a whole host of them, but I will highlight a few…

A Hawaii native and draftee from one of the best programs in recent college baseball, KJ Harrison had plenty of eyes on him when he went to the Brewers in the 3rd round in 2017. However, after a very good Pioneer League debut in his draft season, Harrison struggled in 2018, showing plenty of swing and miss and nowhere near the excellent bat control he did in college. This year is already different. Washington acquired Harrison last year before the August 31 trade deadline, but he made his debut in the Nationals system in low-A Hagerstown, where he obliterated the competition, quickly moving to high-A Potomac, and he’s not slowed down with the promotion, combining to hit .340/.435/.519 with 14 doubles and 4 home runs.

In a draft with some impressive high school players, Will Benson went with the 14th overall pick in the 2016 draft to Cleveland. The Georgia prep outfielder was one of the best athletes in the draft, and he has impressed in a repeat of the Midwest League, hitting .272/.366/.562 with 12 home runs and 17 steals. He still struggles with swing and miss, but Benson is doing much more with the contact he is making now at the plate and should get a promotion soon to Lynchburg.

The Marlins acquired Zac Gallen from St. Louis in the Marcell Ozuna deal, and while he’s been solid to this point in his minor league career, he’s never done anything like what he is doing in AAA, even with the new ball, as he’s posted a 1.74 ERA and 0.65 WHIP over 67 1/3 innings with an 11/80 BB/K ratio. He’s certainly next in line for a chance in the Marlins rotation.

Long and lanky from Canada, Jordan Balazovic was the Minnesota Twins 5th round pick in the 2016 draft out of high school. He’s filled into his frame and gained velocity, but he’s absolutely broken out this season, as he’s made 4 starts at each A-ball level, tossing 44 2/3 innings, with a 2.22 combined ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and an incredibly impressive 9/66 BB/K ratio. He will be getting serious top 100 consideration this year at the end of the season if he can keep this up.

Bottom’s up: 100 losses doesn’t mean what it used to

The number used to be the final nail in the coffin for a fan base to give up on their local nine for a few seasons. Once a team eclipsed 100 losses, it signified something especially rough about where the franchise was presently and where it was heading.

Instead, the list of teams that have lost 100 games in this decade before last season doesn’t look like all that bad a list to be on:

Chicago-N (2012)
Houston (2011,2012,2013)
Miami (2013)
Minnesota (2016)

After the Cubs and Astros won World Series titles in 2016 and 2017, respectively, and the Twins made the playoffs as a Wild Card a year after losing 100, the stigma for a team losing 100 seems to have been lessened in front offices. After just four organizations losing 100 games a total of six times in the first seven years of the decade, the 2018 season brought three teams accomplishing the feat, none of which had lost 100 in the decade before last season.

This year, four teams are currently on pace to exceed 100 losses, with another team on pace for 99 losses.

2018 – Baltimore, Kansas City, Chicago-A
2019 (on pace) – Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City, Washington (Toronto 99)

Whether teams believe that they can recover more quickly to competitiveness in the makeup of the modern market of trading and free agency or if evidence has shown that there really is little difference to revenue to lose 95 or to lose 100 while the return on draft picks could be significant to have the worse season is not exactly known, but whatever is the case, in a two-year span, MLB will potentially have more teams lose 100 games that had lost 100 in the 7-year start to the decade that had preceded.

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