Starting 9: Under the Radar at the MLB Trade Deadline
With just a few days to the MLB trade deadline, a few of the “sellers” in this year’s market have already been clearly defined. However, much of the focus has been on the cream of their crop of potentially available players. In this week’s Starting 9, we’re going to explore 9 players on selling teams that aren’t as hyped but could end up as huge acquisitions.
Strike One – David Phelps, Relief Pitcher, Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays made the first “major” deal of the 2019 MLB trade deadline when they traded starter Marcus Stroman to the New York Mets. While Stroman was the team’s top target, they certainly have many more pieces that will be desirable on this year’s market, and fans have often heard the names of pitchers like closer Ken Giles and relievers Daniel Hudson and Joe Biagini, but often a former one-time elite reliever is being left out of the mix.
In 2016, David Phelps rightfully deserved an All-Star nod for the work he did in the Marlins bullpen. He was used frequently and for multiple innings, logging 86 2/3 innings over 64 appearances on the year. His performance was incredible, with a 2.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a 38/114 BB/K ratio.
That heavy usage seemed to break Phelps. He was on and off the DL the next year before succumbing to surgery, which cost him all of the 2018 season.
He’s returned in 2019 to pitch in just 17 games so far, but he is showing to have a very good 3-pitch mix that would work great as a setup man with a fastball working in the 92 MPH range, a cut fastball right around 90, and a curve that he throws right around 80, all of which are thrown essentially for an equal third of his offerings. Using Baseball Savant’s information, Phelps has an expected batting average of .214, which is just barely more than his stellar 2016 season.
Ball One – Pedro Severino, Catcher, Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles very notably took a catcher with the #1 overall pick in the 2019 draft. One of their top prospects the last few seasons (and a top-100 prospect in at least 3 separate offseasons) is also a catcher.
That would seem to make a 25-year-old waiver claim having a career year as a luxury on a team potentially heading to another top overall selection, and that’s exactly where Pedro Severino finds himself. After bouncing back and forth between the high minors and Washington for three years, he was designated for assignment in spring training, and the Orioles grabbed him. With other options falling by the wayside, Severino has put together a tremendous year, hitting .276/.348/.472 with 10 home runs in 225 plate appearances.
The Orioles called up former top prospect Chance Sisco essentially on the day that they drafted Adley Rutschman, seemingly to get a look at exactly what they have, knowing Rutschman will move quickly through their farm system. Sisco has started in 25 of 41 games behind the plate since that call, which means that he’s getting roughly 3 of every 5 starts. The Orioles have other catchers on their 40-man as well that they could bring up to replace Severino, so he truly is a luxury.
On the trade market, a catcher with a quality bat is always valued, but Severino has typically had a highly-regarded defensive reputation as well. This season, the numbers are not the same for some reason, but over the last few years, he’s graded well in the same areas he’s showing struggles this year, so that could be a statistical anomaly or decline, but at 25, the decline answer would be surprising. The Chicago Cubs were willing to trade a young, controllable pitcher with major league experience for a backup catcher recently, so there is definitely a market.
Ball Two in the Dirt – Miguel Rojas, Infield, Miami Marlins
Typically a 30-year-old infielder without a definite position would not be a highly desirable player, but over the past three seasons, Rojas has two seasons (including this one) with .290 or better batting averages, has never struck out more than 13% of his plate appearances, and still walks at a decent rate (7% this year).
However, what makes Rojas very valuable is that he’s able to play at a positive value at second base, third base, and shortstop…as well as first base. That sort of defensive flexibility with a very good contact bat that doesn’t strike out is a very good combination!
Called Strike Two – Aaron Bummer, Relief Pitcher, Chicago White Sox
Drafted in the 19th round in 2014, Bummer has battled injury throughout his time in the minor leagues as he moved up the farm system, missing all of 2015 due to arm surgery. He was able to reach the majors in 2017 and split his time almost evenly between AAA and the big league club in 2018, but this season, he’s posting a tremendous 1.66 ERA over 38 innings in the Pale Hose bullpen. That screams regression, right?!
The lefty has enjoyed a very beneficial BABIP for sure, but outside of that, Bummer is a guy that profiles as someone who should continue to do just what he’s doing. He’s posting a slim 23.2% hard-hit rate, his home run per fly ball rate is fairly normal, and while he’s seen a tick up in his average velocity, he’s not seen anything crazy in that regard, either.
What Bummer does at a remarkable rate is require hitters to drive the ball onto the ground. The only pitcher with a better groundball rate with at least 25 innings thrown on the year is fellow lefty reliever Zack Britton. Bummer generates just short of 70% ground balls by using a two-pitch mix now, paring down his pitches significantly to 90% sinkers and cutters. He also throws a four-seamer, change, and a slider, but those all add to less than 10% of total pitches Bummer throws. It makes perfect sense as a sinker with an average velocity of 95.7 MPH and a cutter with an average velocity of 89.2 MPH from a lefty is going to be near-impossible to square up.
Whether the Sox will ask a high ransom on Bummer (as they certainly could with Bummer still not arbitration-eligible until after the 2020 season, and not hit free agency until after 2024), teams should certainly be pursuing him heavily.
Fouled Straight Back – Domingo Santana, Outfield, Seattle Mariners
After being traded in the offseason from Milwaukee to Seattle, Santana, like the Mariners, started the season very hot. It seems that once the team cooled down, people forgot about Santana.
Interestingly, Santana has had an every-other-month year this season, with a .292 batting average in 6 home runs in March/April, .237 average with 4 home runs in May, .295 average with 8 home runs, and .246 average with 2 home runs in July to this point. He’s even had his walk rate ebb and flow at the same pattern – 14 in March/April, 6 in May, 15 in June, and 6 in July.
So, Santana may be a streaky hitter at the plate, but when he is on, he provides tremendous raw power. Santana has been a very good base runner, but his defensive numbers in 2019 have been bad, to say the least. However, if you look just at his work in his more natural right field, he’s been better, but he’s still not great.
A team willing to either put Santana at DH or live with his defensive issues could benefit greatly from his bat, however, and with the Mariners open for business, he would seem like an ideal target for many teams.
Ball Three Up and In – Jorge Lopez, Relief Pitcher, Kansas City Royals
Last season, when the Milwaukee Brewers acquired long-time Royal Mike Moustakas at the deadline, they sent two one-highly-regarded prospects to Kansas City in the deal in righty Jorge Lopez and outfielder Brett Phillips. Each have had their own level of struggles in KC this season, but Lopez’s rough overall numbers are hiding a value that could bring some teams to the trade table in the next few days.
To open the season, Lopez was in the rotation, and he struggled to a 6.79 ERA over his first 11 appearances (10 starts), allowing a .912 OPS. He was then placed in the bullpen. While he has posted a 5.28 ERA in that role, it is significant to note that he’s also suffered through a well-above-average BABIP that has hovered around .350 as a reliever.
Most notably, since moving to the bullpen, he’s seen his hard-hit rate drop a full 3 points and his groundball rate jump 11 points to nearly 50% of all contact. He’s using his sinker more and more in the role, and he’s found hitters simply cannot square up his two-seamer, especially when mixed with his curve.
The Royals may want to keep Lopez in house, but if a team is looking to make an under-radar grab, he’d be a great target.
Fouled Down the Line – Jose Iglesias, Shortstop, Cincinnati Reds
This season, there will be no more August deadline, meaning if you lose a starting player between July 31 and August 31, there isn’t the buffer of the waiver trade deadline to potentially fill that spot. That could bring the value of potential fill-in players on one-year deals up significantly.
I mention Jose Iglesias, but he’s among a group of one-year players (including Jordy Mercer, Logan Forsythe, Asdrubal Cabrera, Freddy Galvis) that could be pursued quite a bit at the deadline. Some players with more control could also be potential targets, like Jonathan Villar or Wilmer Flores (2020 option). All of them could be huge parts of a contender’s bench.
The other guy that is going to be very interesting is infielder/outfielder Danny Santana, who has tremendous raw athleticism, but his plate discipline has always hindered his career. This season, he’s not exactly taking a lot more walks, but he is making very good contact, and the Rangers could look to capitalize on his .324/.355/.588 season (with 15 HR and 12 SB).
Popped Into the Stands – Chris Martin, Relief Pitcher, Texas Rangers
The towering (6’8″) righty was a 21st round pick way back in 2005. He’s pitched in independent ball, in Japan, and for four major league organizations along the way, appearing in the majors for 3 of them. After a two-year stint in Japan, Chris Martin returned to the United States on a two-year, $4 million deal with the Rangers before 2018.
After a 4.54 ERA (3.52 FIP) in 2018 over 46 games, Martin has been even better this year, posting a 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, along with a sterling 4/43 BB/K ratio. Martin pounds the zone, throwing nearly all fastballs or fastball variants, with over 90% of his pitches being a fastball, cutter, or split-finger. He does offer a mid-80s slider as well, but for nearly any club, a 2.7% walk rate is incredible. Pairing it with nearly a 30% strikeout rate is going to be incredibly valuable.
The Rangers will take offers on a number of players the next few days. Martin should be the guy that is getting the most attention, though he won’t be, most likely.
Swinging Strike 3 – Jake McGee, Relief Pitcher, Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies took the odd angle to build their team around an expensive, veteran bullpen recently, but before they re-signed McGee in the 2017-2018 offseason, the Rockies first traded away a strong outfield bat in Corey Dickerson in order to acquire McGee (and German Marquez, which makes the deal a win for Colorado). That has generally failed for the Rockies, including McGee, who has posted a 4.68 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over 180 2/3 innings as a Rockie.
This season, however, McGee is putting up better surface numbers. He’s posted a 3.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, a 7.3% walk rate, and a 19.3% strikeout rate. However, his underlying numbers show a guy who is about to suffer, with a nearly 50% hard-hit rate and nearly double the fly ball rate he’s shown in his career.
What makes McGee intriguing, then? While righty hitters only have 6.7% soft-hit balls with McGee, lefties check in with 20.6% soft-hit balls. Overall, lefties post a .210 wOBA and .496 OPS against McGee on the season while righties have tagged him for a .395 wOBA and .957 OPS. A manager who knows that McGee is there for use against left-handed hitters and lefties only could gain significant value from acquiring McGee for likely a much lower price than his numbers would indicate he should cost for that role.
Whether we see any of these players moved, each has shown well in 2019 and should draw interest as we close out this MLB trade deadline period.
Benjamin Chase
After 6 years of writing for FanSided on various sites and offering contributions to various other websites, family changes have encouraged me to start this site. I spend a ton of time watching baseball at all levels, but I love watching minor league baseball on milb.tv as I'm hours away from the closest minor league team. This is an effort of all those games I enjoy on a daily basis!
