Starting 9: The Trade Deadline

July 2, 2019 Starting 9: Exploring and explaining the trade deadline

It’s July 2nd. That means it’s definitely trade season in Major League Baseball. This is the month before the trade deadline when the most trades of any point in the year will go down throughout the game. Before you see your team’s name on the transaction log and wonder, “Why did they just do that?!”, feel free to take a read and hopefully find more peace!

Up first: Why a deadline?

Roughly 100 years ago, two New York teams forced Major League Baseball into a corner regarding trading. The Giants and Yankees used their financial strength to buy players and/or make trades for expensive players that were straining the finances of their clubs, changing the balance of the league. From 1921-1923, the Yankees and Giants faced off in three straight World Series in large part due to their trade imbalance.

The league imposed a trade deadline in 1923, settling on June 15th for the date, which made sense with the 154-game season and the timing of the season in a league without lights that typically worked to be done by mid-October. The date was changed to July 31 for the non-waiver trade deadline as part of the 1986 Collective Bargaining Agreement after the 1985 strike.

In general, a trade deadline restricts a player moved after that date from playing in the postseason. That forces teams that are potentially building their roster for the postseason to make any deals that would affect their postseason roster by that trade deadline.

Two-hole: Solo deadline

Prior to the 2019 season, Major League Baseball has had multiple trade deadlines. The trade deadline on July 31st was for non-waiver trades, meaning no additional moves were needed to make a player eligible for the trade. After that would come the waiver trade deadline on August 31st, which required a player be put through the waiver system before being traded.

This season is the first year without that second deadline. Baseball eliminated the August 31st deadline this year, meaning the deadline on July 31st is the one trade deadline during the season, though the deadline to have a player on the roster by August 31 in order to be eligible for the postseason still remains.

Hot corner: What changes with one deadline?

Without the waiver deadline, there is just one deadline, which should mean much more action this month as teams will have to have all of their decisions made before the deadline on July 31st. Typically, movement starts heavy after the All-Star break, but we’ve already seen some big names move this year (Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak) and impact pennant races. That’s likely going to happen plenty early in July as well, not just at the deadline date.

Without waiver trades, after July 31, players will still be placed on waivers, but those players will be claimed and move or not be claimed. It won’t be a trade anymore.

Cleanup: What types of players will move?

The most frequent players that move in trade deadline deals are impending free agents, who are typically traded for prospects. Outside of that, you’ll usually see veteran players that are “expensive” moved by teams that are entering a non-competitive cycle in order to gain more young players for a future competitive cycle.

As far as positions go, any position is really up for grabs, but the most desirable asset at midseason is typically pitching. Usually, both starting and relief pitching is heavily desired, but there is always an intense market for relievers as no team feels their bullpen is deep enough.

Cinco: Which teams are clearly buying in 2019?

Teams that are competing for a playoff spot make sense to be heavy in the “buying” mode in the trade market. Right now, five teams have won 50 games in the league – the Yankees, Twins, Astros, Dodgers, and Braves.

Obviously, other teams will be pushing hard to make the playoffs. The division leaders in the American League each hold at least a 6 1/2 game lead, with the Twins, Astros, and Yankees each in the driver’s seat for a division crown. The Rays, Red Sox, Indians, Rangers, and Athletics are all within 5 games of making the playoffs as Wild Card participants, with the Red Sox surprisingly having the worst record of that bunch.

The National League is less settled at the top. While the Dodgers have a very comfortable 12 game lead and the Braves are leading in the East by 5 1/2, the other National League division is nowhere near settled. At this time, the National League Central is completely up for grabs, with all teams within 5 1/2 games of one another and the Brewers and Cubs tied atop the division. That bleeds into the NL Wild Card race as well, as every NL Central team is within 5 games of the Wild Card, with the Rockies, Phillies, Nationals, Padres, and Diamondbacks also still within that same 5 games of a National League playoff spot.

While some of those teams will fall off between now and July 31st, it is best to consider any team within 5 games of the playoffs at this point as still involved, with the most certain buyers being teams experiencing significant success and working to secure their October position, like the American League division leaders, the Rays, the four teams currently atop the three National League divisions, as well as the Rockies.

Six: Which teams are clearly selling in 2019?

The parity in the middle of the National League will make it difficult for many teams to make the decision to sell, and it’s understandable why when looking at the records in each league. The American League has 5 of the 6 teams in baseball who have lost 50 games on the season, while the only member of those 6 from the National League has lost exactly 50 games.

It’s not hard to see those six teams (Blue Jays, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Mariners, Marlins) being sellers, and due to teams in their own division playing so well, it would not be surprising to see the Mets, Giants, and White Sox join them.

That does leave some very intriguing teams in the middle – teams that have very valuable trade assets, but right now are currently playing well enough to consider holding on to those assets. Teams like the Angels, Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and even the Nationals, Red Sox, Cardinals, and Padres, who are all currently in competitive positions, may make the choice before July 31st to sell off pieces if an extended losing streak were to knock them 10+ games out of playoff contention.

Seventh heaven: What happens for a team in “sell” mode?

Fans of the six teams that are certain sellers came into the 2019 season understanding that their team would likely be dealing away major league assets during the season for either young major league players or minor leaguers. They’ll begin to see that come to fruition in the next few weeks.

Add in teams like the Giants and White Sox (the Mets may be stubborn enough not to sell until the last moment or even the offseason), and you have some very talented players that would hit the market. Teams would be bidding heavily for impending free agents like Jose Abreu, Madison Bumgarner, Justin Smoak, Will Smith, Nicholas Castellanos, and Homer Bailey (who would have predicted that 6 months ago?!).

Other highly-paid and potentially desirable veterans that should draw interest from those teams would include Jeff Samardzija, Sam Dyson, Tony Watson, Mark Melancon, Starlin Castro, Randal Grichuk, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Ken Giles, Jonathan Villar, Andrew Cashner, Dylan Bundy, Mychal Givens, Wellington Castillo/James McCann, Alex Colome, Shane Greene, Billy Hamilton, Jorge Soler, Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Wily Peralta, Dee Gordon, Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager, Mike Leake, and Cory Gearrin.

Those teams that are selling are looking to make back significant prospect capital in order to supplement a rebuilding process. In recent seasons some of the top prospects in the entire game have moved in deadline deals that spurred the Cubs, Indians, Astros, Dodgers, and Red Sox into the World Series, along with multiple deals to attempt to make the World Series.

Just in the last three seasons, the list of top 100 prospects that have been traded is incredible.

In 2016, Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Lewis Brinson, Luis Ortiz, Frankie Montas, Dillon Tate, Lucius Fox, Yordan Alvarez, Harold Ramirez, Reese McGuire, Josh Naylor, Billy McKinney, Anderson Espinoza, Chris Paddack, and Fernando Tatis, Jr. were all traded.

In 2017, Isaac Paredes, Jeimer Candelario, Jorge Mateo, Oniel Cruz, Willie Calhoun, Esteury Ruiz, Tyler O’Neill, Blake Rutherford, Jesus Luzardo, Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez, Daz Cameron, Franklin Perez, and Jake Rogers were all moved.

Last summer, Shane Baz, Justin Williams, Genesis Cabrera, Willi Castro, Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, Luis Ortiz, Oscar Mercado, Luke Voit, Hector Perez, Jhoan Duran, Billy McKinney, Dillon Tate, Francisco Mejia, and Yusniel Diaz were part of the trade hauls.

Setting up: Free agency rules

With the changes in the 2012 CBA, teams no longer can make trades in-season and receive draft compensation for impending free agents that they acquire. The updates in the CBA signed after the 2016 season changed those rules even further, which takes away a lot of the potential for a qualifying offer for potential free agents, meaning if teams want to get value out of an impending free agent, this month is their opportunity.

While teams like the Mets, Angels, and others close to competing this month but still distant from the front of the race may not be able to fully sell, they very possibly will listen on their potential free agents.

That could lead to markets for guys like Greg Holland, David Hernandez, Alex Wood, Zack Wheeler, Michael Wacha, Tanner Roark, Matt Harvey, Yasiel Puig, Adam Jones, Jarrod Dyson, Marcell Ozuna, Derek Dietrich, Corey Dickerson, Todd Frazier, Scooter Gennett, Brian Dozier, Francisco Cervelli, and even Anthony Rendon , even if their team doesn’t go into a complete sell-off.

Closer: Reviewing 2018 deals

So what should we expect? For some of the elite players projected to be on the market, like Bumgarner and Stroman, they won’t quite get to the level of the offers made for Manny Machado, but they could bring in a haul of multiple prospects, perhaps akin to some of the pitcher deals seen from 2018.

Reviewing the top deadline deals from June-July 2018:

6/6/18: Kansas City Royals trade Jon Jay to Arizona Diamondbacks for Elvis Luciano and Gabe Speier
Not a huge deal, but a good role player for the Diamondbacks, even though their playoff push fell short. Jay had put together impressive numbers with the Royals (.307/.363/.374), but he struggled in Arizona (.235/.304/.325).

6/10/18: Tampa Bay Rays trade Brad Miller and cash to Milwaukee Brewers for Ji-Man Choi
Miller had struggled with the Rays after a big 2016, and the Brewers were hopeful that he could answer their need at second base. Choi ended up being the better performer in this deal, with his power helping to propel the Rays to the edge of the playoffs.

6/18/18: Kansas City Royals trade Kelvin Herrera to Washington Nationals for Kelvin Gutierrez, Blake Perkins, and Yohanse Morel
Herrera was supposed to solidify the back end of the Nationals bullpen, but injuries ruined that idea. Gutierrez made his way to the majors already in 2019, but the 18-year-old Morel will be the gem of this deal for the Royals, whether that’s as a potential backend bullpen piece or a mid-rotation starter down the road.

6/28/18: Toronto Blue Jays trade Steve Pearce and cash to Boston Red Sox for Santiago Espinal.
This was obviously a win for the Red Sox at almost any cost, as Pearce was the hero of the 2018 World Series for Boston.

7/8/18: San Francisco Giants trade Austin Jackson, Cory Gearrin, and Jason Bahr to Texas Rangers for Player to be Named Later
This was a salary dump for the Giants, who were trying to get under the luxury tax by the deadline for Major League Baseball. Jackson was nearly immediately released, and Gearrin was traded in August to Oakland for two low-level prospects. The Giants eventually received cash instead of a player.

7/18/18: Baltimore Orioles trade Manny Machado to Los Angeles Dodgers for Breyvic Valera, Yusniel Diaz, Zack Pop, Dean Kremer, and Rylan Bannon
With a shallow farm system, the Orioles were enticed by a trade package featuring one top-50 prospect (Diaz) and quantity rather than pushing for 1-2 elite prospects from the Dodgers. Machado saw his OPS drop 140 points with the Dodgers, but he was vital in the NLCS for the Dodgers to get to the World Series.

7/19/18: Texas Rangers trade Jesse Chavez to Chicago Cubs for Tyler Thomas
Thomas has an electric arm and was an excellent move for a rental of Chavez. Of course, posting a 1.15 ERA over 32 games for the Cubs made Chavez a great pickup for the Cubs.

7/19/18: San Diego Padres trade Brad Hand and Adam Cimber to Cleveland Indians for Francisco Mejia
One of the top prospects in the game was enough to garner two relievers from the Padres, including one of the elite lefties in the game.

7/21/18: New York Mets trade Jeurys Familia to Oakland Athletics for Bobby Wahl, Will Toffey, and international money
The Mets moved their closer in a lost 2018 season for two prospects and international money to help them pursue signings from Latin America. Familia was solid for Oakland with a 3.45 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a 14/40 BB/K over 31 1/3 innings in a deep Oakland bullpen.

7/24/18: Baltimore Orioles trade Zack Britton to New York Yankees for Cody Carroll, Dillon Tate, and Josh Rogers
Tate was the known name here, but this was another move by the Orioles to get quantity over quality, going for multiple solid arms rather than one top-notch one that they may have received from other teams. Britton had missed much of 2018 due to injury, but he was very good in his time with the Yankees.

7/25/18: Tampa Bay Rays trade Matt Andriese to Arizona Diamondbacks for Michael Perez and Brian Shaffer
The Rays had their eyes on Perez behind the plate for a long time, so getting him for Andriese was certainly worth this deal for them.

7/25/18: Tampa Bay Rays trade Nathan Eovaldi to Boston Red Sox for Jalen Beeks
Beeks made his major league debut for the Red Sox that season and worked very well as the second pitcher in the Rays’ opener system. Eovaldi was an impending free agent that had a brilliant run to end the season and was arguably the most valuable pitcher in the bullpen.

7/26/18: Tampa Bay Rays trade Jonny Venters to Atlanta Braves for international money
Venters came up with the Braves and was one of the most dominant middle men in the game before arm surgery ended his run. The only player to successfully return from three Tommy John surgeries, Venters was a key cog in the Braves bullpen through the rest of the season and won the Comeback Player of the Year.

7/26/18: Toronto Blue Jays trade J.A. Happ to New York Yankees for Billy McKinney and Brandon Drury
The Jays likely had better talent offers, but they prioritized players ready for the major leagues and they got that in this package for arguably the top-performing starter on the market in the 2018 trade season.

7/26/18: Chicago White Sox trade Joakim Soria and cash to Milwaukee Brewers for Kodi Medeiros and Wilber Perez
Medeiros may have passed the point of being an intriguing prospect for list purposes, but he’s still a good arm, and certainly a good return for Soria at the time, though Soria finished very strong in the Brewers bullpen.

7/26/18: Los Angeles Angels trade Martin Maldonado to Houston Astros for Patrick Sandoval and international slot money
Injuries had befallen the Astros catchers in 2018, so one of the best defenders in the league was an excellent choice to shore up the position for the stretch run.

7/26/18: Toronto Blue Jays trade Seunghwan Oh to Colorado Rockies for Chad Spanberger and Forrest Wall
Oh was brought in after drawing minimal interest on the free agent market, and he was a desired piece at the trade deadline, bringing the Jays two bat-first minor league pieces.

7/27/18: Kansas City Royals trade Mike Moustakas to Milwaukee Brewers for Brett Phillips and Jorge Lopez
The Royals brought Moustakas back after he drew minimal interest as a free agent and got more than they could have bargained for in this deal with the elite defense of Phillips and the arm potential of Lopez.

7/27/18: Minnesota Twins trade Ryan Pressly to Houston Astros for Gilberto Cetestino and Jorge Alcala
The Twins would sure love to have this one back. Pressly just made the All-Star team after breaking the record for appearances without allowing a run. Both players are likely not going to help in Minnesota until 2021 at the soonest.

7/27/18: New York Mets trade Asdrubal Cabrera to Philadelphia Phillies for Franklyn Kilome
Kilome was a tremendous price for the rental of Cabrera, but he ended up hurt and will miss all of 2019.

7/27/18: Minnesota Twins trade Eduardo Escobar to Arizona Diamondbacks for Ernie De La Trinidad, Gabriel Maciel, and Jhoan Duran
While Escobar was (and is) one of the most popular Twins in the clubhouse and among fans, the price received for him was excellent, with Duran likely to be featured on top 100 lists this year and both other pieces showing well. A solid price for a free agent to be.

7/27/18: Texas Rangers trade Cole Hamels and cash to Chicago Cubs for Rollie Lacy, Eddie Butler, and Alexander Ovalles
If teams knew Hamels was going to have the second half that he did in 2018, the Rangers could have gotten a better package than they did, but at the time of the deal, Hamels was sporting a 4.72 ERA.

7/29/18: New York Yankees trade Chasen Shreve and Giovanny Gallegos to St. Louis Cardinals for Luke Voit and international slot money
Could this move have gone any better for the Yankees? Voit has been a beast since this move. Shreve and Gallegos have been solid, but the Yankees would do this move every day again.

7/30/18: Minnesota Twins trade Lance Lynn and cash to New York Yankees for Tyler Austin and Luis Rijo
Lynn was struggling in 2018 before this deal, but he went on a strong run for the Yankees initially after the trade.

7/30/18: Toronto Blue Jays trade Roberto Osuna to Houston Astros for David Paulino, Hector Perez, and Ken Giles
The Jays had an issue of a young, hard-throwing pitcher with a domestic violence issue hanging over his head. Almost as soon as he was cleared, the Astros gobbled him up for three power arms, including their (at the time) struggling closer in Giles, who could be an important trade chip for Toronto this summer.

7/30/18: Minnesota Twins trade Zach Duke to Seattle Mariners for Chase De Jong and Ryan Costello
Duke was a lefty piece for the Mariners to potentially push for a playoff spot, not bringing much to the Twins in return.

7/30/18: Baltimore Orioles trade Brad Brach to Atlanta Braves for international slot money
The Braves looked to add a bullpen piece, and Brach overcame season-long struggles to be very good for the Braves down the stretch.

7/31/18: Texas Rangers trade Jake Diekman to Arizona Diamondbacks for Wei-Chieh Huang and Joshua Javier
Diekman as a lefty specialist didn’t have a ton of draw, so two low-level prospects was a good return for the Rangers. Diekman really struggled in Arizona, with a 7.53 ERA over 24 appearances.

7/31/18: Texas Rangers trade Keone Kela to Pittsburgh Pirates for Taylor Hearn and Sherten Apostel
Hearn and Apostel have a tremendous amount of upside and are incredible raw talent players, which makes sense for a valuable piece like Kela. Kela was good but not great with the Pirates to close out 2018, posting a 2.93 ERA and 5/22 BB/K over 15 1/3 innings to finish the year. He’s miss most of the 2019 season.

7/31/18: Minnesota Twins trade Brian Dozier to Los Angeles Dodgers for Logan Forsythe, Luke Raley, and Devin Smeltzer
Dozier had a horrific 2018 that didn’t get better with the Dodgers, tanking what would have been his trade value before the 2018 season. The Twins were still able to get a flyer in Smeltzer who already worked his way to the majors this season.

7/31/18: St. Louis Cardinals trade Oscar Mercado to Cleveland Indians for Conner Capel and Jhon Torres
While this seemed an insignificant trade at the time, it has shown to be quite important for the Indians this season as Mercado has arguably been the team’s best outfielder. The Cardinals got a player in Torres with a world of talent that could end up a piece down the road.

7/31/18: Baltimore Orioles trade Jonathan Schoop to Milwaukee Brewers for Jonathan Villar, Luis Ortiz, and Jean Carmona
Villar’s struggles put the Brewers in the market for a second baseman, but Schoop struggled to the point that he was not receiving friendly welcomes from Milwaukee crowds by the end of the season.

7/31/18: Tampa Bay Rays trade Chris Archer to Pittsburgh Pirates for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz
The pitcher that had been the jewel of the trade market for multiple years finally was moved for a tremendous bounty for the Rays. A year later, this looks like a significant overpay on the part of the Pirates.

7/31/18: Toronto Blue Jays trade John Axford to Los Angeles Dodgers for Corey Copping
Jays got an advanced bullpen arm for Axford, who was a major disappointment for the Dodgers, allowing 8 runs in just 3 2/3 innings.

7/31/18: Miami Marlins trade Cameron Maybin to Seattle Mariners for Bryson Brigman and international slot money
Maybin provided a stable glove in center field down the stretch for a Mariners playoff push. The real jewel for the Marlins was the additional slot money, which allowed them to sign the Mesa brothers over the winter.

7/31/18: Baltimore Orioles trade Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to Atlanta Braves for Evan Phillips, Jean Carlos Encarnacion, Brett Cumberland, Bruce Zimmermann, and international slot money
The Braves paid in quantity over quality in order to get a young starter with multiple years of control. Gausman was tremendous down the stretch, and even if he can’t find it again in 2019 and O’Day doesn’t return, this price was worth it for his help in pushing the Braves to the 2018 postseason.

7/31/18: Toronto Blue Jays trade Aaron Loup to Philadelphia Phillies for Jacob Waguespack
Loup was traded as a lefty specialist, and he drew a return of a low-ceiling, high-floor sort of arm.

7/31/18: Washington Nationals trade Brandon Kintzler to Chicago Cubs for Jhon Romero
The Nationals moved a piece of their bullpen for a high-upside reliever who has struggled mightily in 2019 in the minors.

7/31/18: Tampa Bay Rays trade Wilson Ramos to Philadelphia Phillies for cash
Ramos ended up hurt as the deadline came, so this deal ended up being about as good as the Rays could get for the All-Star Ramos, who ended up hitting very well to finish the season (.337/.396/.483).

7/31/18: Miami Marlins trade Brad Ziegler to Arizona Diamondbacks for Tommy Eveld
This was really a trade of need and blessing as the Marlins allowed Ziegler to finish his career with the Diamondbacks with a solid 3.74 ERA in 29 appearances down the stretch.

7/31/18: Detroit Tigers trade Leonys Martin and Kyle Dowdy to Cleveland Indians for Willi Castro
Though Martin ended up suffering from a very scary non-injury condition that cost him the end of the season, he played well right off the bat for Cleveland. Castro has shown to be a very good pickup with potential as a starter as soon as late 2019 for Detroit.

7/31/18: St. Louis Cardinals trade Tommy Pham and international bonus money to Tampa Bay Rays for Justin Williams, Genesis Cabrera, and Roel Ramirez
This was supposed to be the Cardinals waving the red flag, but then they went on a tremendous run in early August and have been regretting this trade since, especially as Pham has been killing ever since this deal was done (.303/.405/.518 with 20 HR in 442 AB w/Tampa).

7/31/18: Los Angeles Angels trade Ian Kinsler and cash to Boston Red Sox for Ty Buttrey and Williams Jerez
What was supposed to be a simple deal to get a fill-in for the injured Dustin Pedroia ended up sending a very good bullpen arm to the Angels in Buttrey…a bullpen arm the Red Sox could desperately use this year.

7/31/18: Cincinnati Reds trade Adam Duvall to Atlanta Braves for Lucas Sims, Matt Wisler, and Preston Tucker
While this seems like a big package of players for a guy that was assumed to be a bench player, this was really more about clearing 40-man space for the Braves so they could call up a number of young arms down the stretch. Duvall struggled mightily in his time in Atlanta in 2018 and opened the 2019 season in the minors.

Hopefully, you’re now ready for this year’s trade deadline! Feel free to comment below with any questions or suggestions for next week’s focus for my weekly long-form piece on the game!

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