Starting 9: MLB debuts
Last week, I started a new weekly segment here at VBS called “Starting 9” where I’m going to address a topic around the game in 9-point format. Today, we’re going to discuss MLB debuts.
We have seen a number of MLB debuts this year of tremendously talented players. In fact, in reviewing the debuts of 2019, out of 66 players that have debuted this year, 12 were on one of the three major industry top prospect lists that Baseball Reference tracks (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB Pipeline).
Leading off: again, the top prospect appears
It has been 2014 since Baseball America’s top prospect did not debut in that season.
2014 – Byron Buxton
2015 – Kris Bryant
2016 – Corey Seager
2017 – Andrew Benintendi
2018 – Ronald Acuna, Jr.
2019 – Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
When Guerrero debuted April 26th, he became the 5th BA #1 in a row to make their major league debut in that season. Incredibly 3 of the last 4 have won the Rookie of the Year award in their respective league that season.
Once Guerrero exhausts his rookie eligibility, best guesses would be that Tampa Bay prospect Wander Franco would take over as the top prospect, and if he does, he could break that streak, as he’s likely not going to debut until 2021.
Batting second: could this be the best prospect group to debut ever?
I mentioned earlier that a dozen players to debut this year were top 100 prospects coming into the season. It would not surprise at all to see another dozen at least, if not 15+ players from 2019 preseason top prospect lists make the majors by the end of the year.
For comparison, in all of 2018, 20 players who were on one of the 3 major lists made their debut. After just one month of play, we’ve already seen a dozen and could see 20 MORE on top of that this year from this year’s lists. Incredible!
Hitting third: teams are bringing up the top guys early
Yes, we all get annoyed that a player like Vlad or Ronald Acuna or (going back a couple of years) Kris Bryant is held back for 2 weeks so his team could get another year of control. However, it wasn’t all that long ago that we were consistently seeing manipulation based around the “Super 2” deadline.
The list of guys at or near the Super 2 number used to be a list of the absolute elite of the elite players in the game, most of them called up at some point in June, with their team hoping they would avoid that player earning one extra year of arbitration.
The list of guys right around that date this past offseason when the actual day was announced? The two headliners were Trea Turner and Edwin Diaz on either side of the line. However, beyond that, there were few major league regulars on the entire list of players near the deadline, let alone “stars”.
The Super 2 cutoff was the highest it has been in many years, and a big part of that is simply that players are either opening the season with their team or else coming up once the extra year of control has been assured roughly two-three weeks into the season. Dancing around arbitration has become less of an issue for MLB teams, though with the remaining players to come up, we could see some movement around the Super 2 mark.
Cleanup: guys are hitting the ground running
Just as we saw last year with Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna, players are coming up and immediately finding success.
This year, this is the list of guys who have debuted this year and their current lines (through games of May 4):
- Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets, .289/.374/.620, 8 2B, 10 HR, 27 RBI, 139 PA
- Nick Anderson, RHRP, Marlins, 14 2/3 IP, 4.91 ERA (1.14 xFIP), 1.09 WHIP, 3/29 BB/K
- Brandon Brennan, RHRP, Mariners, 18 1/3 IP, 1.96 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 6/21 BB/K
- Michael Chavis, IF, Red Sox, .354/466/.771, 2 2B, 6 HR, 58 PA
- Kelvin Gutierrez, 3B, Royals, .344/.364/.531, 33 PA
- Ryne Harper, RHRP, Twins, 12 2/3 IP, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 3/9 BB/K
- Merrill Kelly, RHSP, Diamondbacks, 6 GS, 35 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 14/29 BB/K
- Yusei Kikuchi, LHSP, Mariners, 8 GS, 40 2/3 IP, 3.98 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9/35 BB/K
- Nick Margevicius, LHSP, Padres, 6 GS, 30 2/3 IP, 3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10/26 BB/K
- Chris Paddack, RHSP, Padres, 6 GS, 33 IP, 1.91 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 9/35 BB/K
- Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pirates, .417/.447/.667, 38 PA
- Fernando Tatis, Jr., SS, Padres, .300/.360/.550, 5 2B, 6 HR, 6 SB, 111 PA
- Trent Thornton, RHSP, Blue Jays, 7 GS, 35 1/3 IP, 4.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 14/38 BB/K
Coming up fifth: These guys are YOUNG!
Four of the players who have debuted this year were under 22. Many of the players who I mentioned earlier as likely to debut this season still are under 22 and would likely drive this number up further.
Currently, just over 6% of all debuts this season have been by someone under 22. Exactly 22 of 66 (33%) have been under 24. Those numbers with potential increases have a chance to be the highest numbers we’ve seen in the last decade, with the 2017 group that saw 6.87% of debuts under 22 and 33.59% under 25.
To be this productive and this young is incredibly impressive!
In the six hole: where could these guys rank all time?
In reviewing debut classes, I found that the 1956 debut class still holds the record with 5 Hall of Fame players. However, many classes are tied for the most players who achieved 40+ bWAR in their career, and this group could certainly do that.
Incredibly while it’s impressive to see the #1 prospect reach the major leagues in a season, this is a season where 3 of the top 4 consensus prospects in the game have already debuted, and 4 players who were fairly consensus top 10 prospects. Of the players that I mentioned that could still debut, three were in Baseball America’s top 10, which could mean that 7 of their top 10 would debut in the 2019 season, an incredible influx of talent into the major leagues.
Seventh heaven: pitching finds
The real thing that is impressive this season is the amount of pitching “finds” among MLB debuts this season.
San Diego lefty Nick Margevicius is the biggest positive surprise. Though the Padres do have a deep farm system, it’s still surprising that a pitcher can come from outside the team’s top 30 prospects to not only make the Opening Day rotation but also excel, posting a 3.47 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his first 7 starts. Incredibly, Margevicius spent the 2018 season pitching at just the A-ball levels, with less than 60 innings above low-A before this season!
The Marlins have seen a player acquired in what seemed a minor trade this offseason turn into an important part of their bullpen this season as Nick Anderson has posted an incredible 3/29 BB/K ratio over 14 2/3 innings. What’s even more incredible is that Anderson was signed from independent ball in 2015 by the Minnesota Twins and has seen his pursuit of his dream pay off at age 28.
Along those lines, former 3-time draftee Merrill Kelly is asserting himself as a solid piece of the Diamondbacks rotation at age 30 after spending the last four seasons in Korea after he was released by the Tampa Bay Rays in December of 2014.
Brandon Brennan was drafted in the Rule 5 draft this past December, and his improved changeup has allowed him to post a 1.86 ERA over 16 appearances with a 6/22 BB/K ratio. As injuries have rattled the Mariners bullpen, he’s been the one steady piece the M’s have had.
Last, but certainly not least, one of the best stories of spring training was the performance of reliever Ryne Harper in Minnesota Twins camp. It started as a cute story, but soon the guy who originally entered professional baseball as a 37th round draft pick in 2011 had earned himself a spot in the Twins Opening Day bullpen. He’s used his impressive curve to post a 2.13 ERA over 12 appearances in his first taste of the major leagues at age 30.
Eight spot: unoriginal debuts are the thing
While guys like Nick Senzel and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. were big-time prospects for their organizations from the moment they came to their respective teams, many of the players who have debuted made their debut with an organization that did not originally draft or sign them.
Of the 66 players who had debuted as of May 4th, 32 were no longer with the team that originally drafted or signed them. Of those 32, over half were on their second team, but three each were on their 4th or 5th organization in their career, which makes their debut at this point in the season a definite reward for a well-traveled baseball path.
Bottom of the order: the “firsts”
One of the best parts about debuts is seeing the family in the crowd, having the camera pan over to them as he steps to the plate, their hands clenched in nervousness, and then, after he pokes a single through to the outfield, seeing them jumping and hugging one another in celebration of their family members first big league hit.
Matt Beaty’s moment, coming through with a pinch-hit single in the 8th inning against his team’s biggest rival was a great one to watch recently for all the good emotional purposes.
However, sometimes those first moments have great tie-in connections, especially with a number of generational players making debuts over the last two seasons. This little gem is perfect to close the piece with:
Benjamin Chase
After 6 years of writing for FanSided on various sites and offering contributions to various other websites, family changes have encouraged me to start this site. I spend a ton of time watching baseball at all levels, but I love watching minor league baseball on milb.tv as I'm hours away from the closest minor league team. This is an effort of all those games I enjoy on a daily basis!
