Previewing the 2019 Atlanta Braves
The 2019 Atlanta Braves season opens today, and fans have a mixed reaction to seeing the team begin the season with the current roster. Many fans were hoping to see more moves from the front office while many are excited to see the reliance on young players that has been a feature of the Opening Day makeup of the Braves for 2019.
Let’s take a look at the club by position and preview what fans can expect from the team in 2019:
Catcher
One of the notable moves of the Atlanta Braves offseason was bringing back veteran catcher Brian McCann to pair with Tyler Flowers, who the team had signed to an extension to carry him through at least 2019 with a 2020 option as well.
While the offensive production of both in 2018 may leave fans wanting for more (Flowers .314 wOBA in 296 PA and McCann .286 wOBA in 216 PA), McCann’s health over 2018 and the combined elite work of the two behind the plate in framing and handling a pitching staff is exactly what the Atlanta Braves need at this time.
Ben’s prediction:
Flowers .244/.362/.421, 340 PA, 3.2 fWAR
McCann .251/.330/.467, 334 PA, 2.5 fWAR
First Base
Freddie Freeman is a mainstay now for the Atlanta Braves, and though his contract is not up for a few seasons, it would be a solid move by the organization to give Freddie the “Mike Trout treatment” and extend him beyond his current deal.
Nearly the only thing that has slowed Freddie the last few seasons has been injury, though he did play 162 games last season. Getting a few days off this year would be just fine, and it would not be surprising with the emerging offensive talent around him to see Freddie put out an MVP-level season in 2019.
Ben’s prediction:
.318/.402/.576, 670 PA, 33 HR, 6.0 fWAR
Second Base
The 2018 season was really one of splits for Ozzie Albies. Against righties, Albies slashed .231/.283/.412 compared to .335/.357/.548 against lefties. In Atlanta Braves victories in 2018, Albies slashed .290/.331/.535 while in losses, he posted a .225/.271/.346 slash line. Of course, the one most realized as the season was going on was his notable .281/.318/.516 slash line for the first half of the season versus a .226/.282/.342 line for the second half.
One thing notable about Albies in 2018 that was very different compared to the guy seen in the minor leagues was that he saw very few pitches. On average, he saw 3.49 pitches. Among 20 qualified second basemen in MLB in 2018, that ranked 18th. Albies has excellent bat control from both sides of the plate, and he was known for spoiling pitches frequently in the minor leagues.
While Albies is not a guy who will ever be a guy who walks 15% of the time, he’s been a fairly consistent guy around 7.5-8.5% throughout his minor league career and even in his first major league stint in 2017. This spring has shown Albies to be attacking pitches similarly to how he did in the minors, and while that could lead to more pitches on the ground and
Ben’s prediction:
.288/.359/.452, 670 PA, 17 HR, 31 SB, 4.9 fWAR
Third Base
The largest free agent single-season salary ever given out in the history of the Atlanta Braves was given to Josh Donaldson. Honestly, this was a move that I’d foreseen for a bit. Donaldson was a guy that Alex Anthopoulos targeted when he was in Toronto, and there has been a reported excellent relationship between the two, such that Donaldson ended extension talks with the Blue Jays after the way Anthopoulos’ exit with the team was handled.
Donaldson suffered through injuries for most of 2017 and 2018 (though he still powered out 33 home runs while not fully healthy in 2017). Once fully healthy with the Indians in 2018, Donaldson was quite productive (.280/.400/.520 over 16 G and 60 PA. Extrapolate to full season, and he was on a 30 home run pace as well).
Injuries will be something to watch, but that’s why having a player like Johan Camargo on the roster is vital. Donaldson won’t be a guy for 160 games or 700 plate appearances, but he will be a catalyst for the Atlanta Braves lineup in 2019.
Ben’s predictions:
.274/.393/.563, 630 PA, 34 HR, 5.4 fWAR
Shortstop
Probably the first major “name” prospect to reach the majors in the rebuild, Dansby Swanson has been the target of plenty of criticism over his 2 1/4 years at the major league level. After 318 games of play, Swanson has put together a 2.4 career fWAR. For Atlanta Braves fans who watched as fan favorite Andrelton Simmons has put up 10.6 fWAR over 2017-2018 alone.
Swanson’s struggles at the plate have belied his tremendous work in the field. While he’s not Simmons, he’s one of the top shortstops in all the National League with a glove on his hand at this point, and that’s a huge thing for this young pitching staff.
Except that bat may not be quite as bad as we all thought. While his slash line showed a rough go of things in the second half in 2018, Swanson made significant improvements that a poor BABIP (.237) covered up as his walk rate jumped 3%, but most importantly, his strikeout dropped by 3.5% in that same time frame, and while the low and outside breaking pitch was still getting him, he seemed to be on other pitches.
This spring, Swanson has seemingly adjusted to that pitch as well, and while he’s not exactly putting up tremendous walk numbers, the offensive showing has been what we’ve been expecting all along. That informs my projection for his 2019.
Ben’s prediction:
.288/.352/.449, 600 PA, 17 HR, 15 SB, 4.2 fWAR
Left Field
At this point of the 2018 season, the big debate was over whether the Atlanta Braves front office should be hung by their toes, posted by their collars on a tall post, or subjected to Chinese water torture for their obvious misleading statements about Ronald Acuna, Jr. and his ability to handle the major leagues after he tore through spring training in 2018.
Whether it was a result of the two weeks spent down in the minor leagues or simply his innate talent shining through, when Acuna arrived in the major leagues, he was immediately an impact player, and only an injury mid-season kept him from potentially putting up the first 30/30 season for the Atlanta Braves since 1991 and just the 5th in the franchise’s nearly 150-year history.
The accolades have been spilled plenty with Acuna, but I would caution this bit – while he was absolutely incredible throughout the second half of the 2018 season, he also did that with a .367 BABIP, which is LOWER than his final season in the minors by 40 points! In other words, with the way this young man hits the baseball, he could be in store for even better things!
The one area of Acuna’s game that I did see
Of course, that’s like complaining that your significant other has a single pair of shoes that you don’t like. It’s a pretty minor thing in the entire scope of the totality, and with Acuna, that’s a player that could be among the franchise greats if the team can lock him up for the long-term.
Ben’s prediction:
.288/.364/.604, 620 PA, 37 HR, 31 SB, 6.7 fWAR
Center Field
I’ll gladly admit that I’m a big fan of pitching and defense. While I’m not a slap-and-steal offense fan, I do appreciate a team that puts its focus on excellence in run prevention. One of the elite parts of that for the Atlanta Braves is their incredible center fielder Ender Inciarte. Braves fans were gifted with watching potentially the best center fielder of all-time, and most certainly the best of the last 30-40 years in Andruw Jones, and that’s perhaps shaded the view of just how elite Inciarte has been in the outfield for the team.
Inciarte’s bat has been at question at times, but as Acuna was the big story in the second half, Inciarte quietly put together an impressive second half, going .302/.345/.448, with the most impressive number being the power he showed. He did do much of that from the bottom of the lineup, which limited his use of his excellent speed, something he took advantage of in the first half, stealing 23 bases before the break, leading the majors in stolen bases deep into June.
With the chance to work in front of a stacked lineup behind him, Inciarte could run wild along with his elite defense!
Ben’s prediction:
.293/.349/.402, 680 PA, 33 SB, 3.2 fWAR
Right Field
The first half of 2018 was really what Atlanta Braves fans had been hoping for from Nick Markakis since he signed a four-year contract with the Braves before the 2015 season. He did finish with a high for his Braves career with 14 home runs and 93 RBI.
The second half of the season is what concerned many fans of the Braves when Markakis’ one-year contract
The nature of Markakis’ contract does allow the front office to find an upgrade if one is available during the season. Otherwise, he will continue his traditional play with plenty of gap power and contact.
Ben’s prediction:
.283/.361/.422, 630 PA, 11 HR, 1.8 fWAR
Bench
Surprising moves happened at the end of camp as Adam Duvall was sent to the minor leagues, leading to the team trading for veteran outfielder Matt Joyce and adding him to the roster. Johan Camargo had a tremendous 2018 and should earn plenty of playing time all around the field with his switch-hitting ability and his defense. Charlie Culberson became a cult hero in Atlanta due to his clutch home runs in 2018, though expecting a repeat performance would be foolhardy. He’s best expected to be a quality utility defender off the bench.
Duvall could be up at some point in the 2019 season, leaving the only other current 40-man roster member that uses a bat as Alex Jackson, who likely will spend his 2019 refining his catching skills in AAA.
Starting Rotation
While the 2019 projected starting rotation looked to be one of the deepest in all of baseball for the Atlanta Braves, the depth of the farm system will be tested early on as Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman will open the season on the shelf. Both should return early, but it will be a good chance for the young arms to make an impression.
The first arms to get a shot will be
This season very feasibly will feature Mike Soroka, Touki Toussaint, Luiz Gohara, and Kolby Allard getting at least one start for the Atlanta Braves, and the team is likely hoping to have ironed out who their future rotation truly will be by the end of the year.
Bullpen
Many Atlanta Braves fans have expressed concerns with the Braves bullpen in spite of the team having excellent depth in pitchers with very good stuff. The lack of veteran experience in the bullpen is perhaps the one concern that could be nullified through a trade or signing during the season.
Without an addition, the team will roll with Arodys Vizcaino at the back of the bullpen. His two primary setup men, A.J. Minter and Darren O’Day, will open 2019 on the IL, but both are expected back soon. In front of Vizcaino will be a host of impressive arms, led by veteran Jonny Venters, who won the 2018 Comeback Player of the Year award, Chad Sobotka, Wes Parsons, Jesse Biddle, Luke Jackson, Shane Carle, and new veteran long reliever Josh Tomlin. Having Parsons and Tomlin both in the bullpen should help the team absorb any potential issues with the young arms in the rotation.
In addition to Minter and O’Day returning, the team could see a host of relievers make their way to the big league pen, including Grant Dayton, Jacob Webb, Patrick Weigel, Dan Winkler, and a whole host of guys who aren’t even on the 40-man roster yet.
Team Projection
While this offseason did not lead to the big acquisition that many hoped for, the Atlanta Braves were very active on the trade front, especially early in the offseason, and the players they targeted are still with their teams and could come available if their respective teams end up out of contention early on as the tracks have been laid already for a future deal.
I would imagine that this is not the roster that will even enter July, let alone be the roster after the trade deadline. The ability to make moves during the season should allow the team to address any issues that do pop up in order to stay competitive.
My early projection for the team, assuming a move or two will be made but not knowing what those moves will be, is an 88-win season. While that is less than 2018, the National League East is such that the Atlanta Braves could end up winning the division with that total as the top four teams in the division will likely beat up on each other pretty good.
Happy Opening Day!
Benjamin Chase
After 6 years of writing for FanSided on various sites and offering contributions to various other websites, family changes have encouraged me to start this site. I spend a ton of time watching baseball at all levels, but I love watching minor league baseball on milb.tv as I'm hours away from the closest minor league team. This is an effort of all those games I enjoy on a daily basis!
