MLB Mock Draft Monday, version 4.7

The 2019 MLB draft will take place on June 3-5. This is the fourth of the mock drafts that I will put out, looking to put out one per week all the way up to the draft.

Before we get into the picks, let’s start with a quick look at the bonus pools for each team:

Arizona $16.09M
Baltimore $13.82M
Kansas City $13.11M
Miami $13.05M
Chicago (A) $11.57M
Atlanta $11.53M
Texas $11.02M
San Diego $10.76M
Detroit $10.40M
Tampa Bay $10.33 M
Pittsburgh $9.94M
Minnesota $9.91M
Cincinnati $9.53M
San Francisco $8.71M
Toronto $8.46M
New York (N) $8.22M
Los Angeles (N) $8.07M
Los Angeles (A) $7.61M
Seattle $7.56M
New York (A) $7.46M
Colorado $7.09M
St. Louis $6.90M
Philadelphia $6.48M
Cleveland $6.15M
Washington $5.98M
Chicago (N) $5.83M
Oakland $5.61M
Houston $5.36M
Milwaukee $5.15M
Boston $4.79M

Now to the draft! We will make picks for every selection through the first collective bargaining picks, which means every team but Boston will have a selection…

1. Baltimore Orioles – Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State

This is a new administration in Baltimore, but even so, the Orioles have not exactly been stuck to one method in the first round over the last few seasons, with six first-round picks since 2015 being split evenly between high school and college draftees. This administration will be looking for the best pick here, and while some have wondered if the Orioles may play some games with their medicals, a new administration hasn’t shown the same issues there, so that assumption can’t be made. This will be Adley unless something pretty drastic happens over the last 5 weeks before draft day.

2. Kansas City Royals – Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Cal

Royals GM Dayton Moore has been the key man in the draft room since the 2007 draft, and he tends to go in streaks, selecting a high school pick with his first 3 first-round picks, then going 5 out of 6 in the college ranks, then 5 out of 6 in the prep ranks before selecting collegiate players with all four first-round selections the team had in the 2018 draft. The Royals won’t be hesitant to use this selection on a top prep player if they prefer one over Vaughn, but right now, it’s hard to imagine any prep player surpassing Vaughn with the incredible hitting track record he has, barring an injury or significant struggles to close out his season.

3. Chicago White Sox – J.J. Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt

While Witt or Abrams seem the obvious choice here, the White Sox have taken 7 straight college or junior college players with their first-round selections, dating back to 2013. That long-time tradition certainly isn’t unflappable, but a collegiate option would likely get a preference. Bleday has scaled the draft boards of MLB teams this spring as he’s been one of the top hitters in all of college baseball while playing in the NCAA and with skills defensively as well. He could be a guy that moves quickly with the ability to hit for both power and a solid average.

4. Miami Marlins – Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia HS

While front office personnel have changed, the Marlins methods seemingly have not, as they have selected 7 high school players with the team’s 9 first-round selections since 2013. The Marlins haven’t had the best luck with prep arms that they’ve chosen with their first-round picks, but Espino could be the guy who breaks that streak as the top arm talent in the 2019 draft.

5. Detroit Tigers – Bobby Witt, Jr., Texas HS

Six first-round draft selections for the Tigers since 2014 have been evenly split between college and high school players. While a collegiate player may appeal, the absolute upside of being able to choose between Witt and Abrams would be quite enticing to the Tigers. Witt would break a streak of the first pick over the last four seasons being a pitcher, so this selection does go against team background to some degree, but once again, Witt would be near-impossible to pass up.

6. San Diego Padres – C.J. Abrams, SS, Georgia HS

The draft falling this way would be ideal for the Padres. Over the past three seasons, the Padres have focused on upside, with four prep selections out of six picks since 2016. However, they’ve also used four of those picks on arms. This could definitely be the first spot for a college arm, even if the draft fell this way, but having the ability to choose among the elite prep bats atop this draft would be something hard to pass up for A.J. Preller and crew.

7. Cincinnati Reds – Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia

Many seem to believe that the Reds are college-focused with their first-round selections. Instead, their picks since 2015 (six total) have been 2/3 prep over college. One consideration to take is that the Reds have shot for high upside with each of their picks since 2015. While Nick Lodolo would make a lot of sense, as would a host of other players, the upside of Manoah is immense, though the Reds have only selected one first-round arm since 2015.

8. Texas Rangers – Corbin Carroll, OF, Washington HS

The Rangers are well-known for their pursuit of upside with their first-round picks. That isn’t just a reputation, either, as they’ve had 20 first-round picks over the last 10 seasons, with just 6 of those 20 coming from college ranks. With that in mind, it’s going to be quite certain that the Rangers will take the biggest upside that lands at their selection and that will likely be a prep player. Carroll’s advanced hit tool, speed, and defense lead his profile, but he has the ability and potential to add just a bit more to his profile along the lines of power and become an elite player.

9. Atlanta Braves – Riley Greene, OF, Florida HS

The second draft for Alex Anthopoulos at the helm for the Braves will be interesting as he’s made some significant changes in the Atlanta scouting department. It would not surprise to see some different strategies come forward, but one thing that Anthopoulos was known for in his previous work with Toronto was shooting for upside, and Greene being on the board right now would be nearly impossible for the Braves to pass up. With two selections in the first round, Anthopoulos could really shoot for upside as the team has major penalties in the international market this season and could utilize the draft to supplement the lack of international funds.

10. San Francisco Giants – Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State

The Giants have not had a lot of first-round selections of late due to previous CBA rules requiring a loss of a first-round pick upon signing a top free agent. While the team has seen its fortunes significantly downgraded, their first-round picks are now protected, and there is a new regime at the helm, so truly identifying what the team will do with any certainty is really a fool’s errand. The way this draft has laid out, the Giants would be best served pursuing either a college bat or an arm, either prep or collegiate. With Bishop’s big power, he could fill a major need the Giants have as he should move quickly through their system.

11. Toronto Blue Jays – Nick Lodolo, LHP, TCU

Last year’s selection of Jordan Groshans in the first round ended a streak of six straight college picks with first-round picks. While the Blue Jays could return to the prep circles here, the best route at this spot in the prep market would really be a prep arm, and this could be too early for the team’s taste to take a high school pitcher. Instead, they could dip again into the college pitching market, getting arguably the highest-floor pitcher in this season’s draft in Lodolo who should move quickly as a back-end starter at the least, with the potential of becoming even more as he polishes his craft at the big league level.

12. New York Mets – Zack Thompson, LHP, Kentucky

While a college arm fits the previous regime, an arm, in general, meets the best value right here, and Thompson would seem to fit a profile that the Mets have worked well with lately, building arm strength on a high-upside arm that has either been overused in college or has light college experience due to injury. Thompson’s got a very high ceiling if he can stay healthy, and if he can move up alongside the power righties in the current Mets rotation, he could be a very nice piece relatively quick.

13. Minnesota Twins – Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV

The Twins current front office has had two drafts to work together, and they’ve made two college selections in three picks. However, they did take a top value at each pick, so the team would not be shy about picking a prep player if that was the top value in this spot of the board. Instead, the way this particular mock fell, the team has a chance to pick a mature college shortstop, and while the Twins do have plenty of depth at shortstop in their farm system currently, they have few “sure” shortstops, as Stott would be.

14. Philadelphia Phillies – Maurice Hampton, OF, Tennessee HS

The Phillies have taken a college player the past two drafts, but they did select just one collegian in their previous 10 first-round picks, dating back to 2008. There is a different front office than the group that was selecting in 2008, but they have consistently chosen the top value. Hampton is rising quickly up draft boards as one of the most athletic players in the draft, with a commitment to Louisiana State in both football and baseball. He has natural strength and elite speed along with plenty of raw tools defensively to believe that he could be a top defender.

15. Los Angeles Angels – Matthew Allan, RHP, Florida HS

A new regime with the Angels has changed the modus operandi of the team in the draft. After many draft picks had been lost due to signings, the team had only tallied six first-round selections from 2010 through 2018. The first four, under former GM Jerry Dipoto, were all college selections, but with current GM Billy Eppler in charge, the team has focused on upside, selecting two prep hitters the past two seasons. In this spot, the best upside is found in the prep pitching class. Allan has been pushing his way toward the top of that class since the summer showcases began last summer. With the farm system quickly on the move up in the game, Allan would give the Angels a high-upside arm to go with arms that are nearing the majors at this time.

16. Arizona Diamondbacks – Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor

With four selections in the first round this year, the Diamondbacks can gamble on upside, gamble on injury, and they can really approach any portion of the market. Langeliers was considered a top-5 to top-10 talent in the draft coming into the season before an injury hampered his ability to show his impressive skills behind the plate this season. He’s been able to continue hitting, albeit without the power he displayed previously as his wrist heals. This could be an excellent gamble that could end up with a top defensive backstop that is also an offensive contributor.

17. Washington Nationals – Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech

The Nationals have utilized many of their draft picks on college selections since 2009, with just 3 high school picks out of 11 total picks. The Nationals have used 5 of their last 6 selections on pitchers, but they are in an excellent spot in this draft to really pick whatever falls to them. In this scenario, it’d be hard to pass up Jung, who was considered among the top hitters in college coming into the season but has not progressed the way some thought he may this year. He’s still hitting very well with nearly a .450 OBP on the season along with plenty of reports on improved defense at the hot corner.

18. Pittsburgh Pirates – Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto JC

The Pirates are known for seeking out high upside arms in each draft, having selected a first-round prep arm each of the last three years, though they did not sign two of them. Rutledge would give the Pirates a similar upside to the arms they’ve selected the last few seasons coming from JuCo, but he would also be a more reasonable sign. He has had an incredible spring, striking out 123 over 77 2/3 innings this spring.

19. St. Louis Cardinals – Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson

The Cardinals have trended prep lately in their drafting, selecting a high schooler with 5 of their last 7 first-round picks. However, many of those picks were a matter of a player falling to them or a signability pick with upside. This would be a spot where they really don’t have reason to pursue either. No player has really fallen at this point, and the Cardinals have just one selection in the first round. Davidson fits a lot of molds of a Cardinals draftee with excellent raw tools as a switch-hitting shortstop with plenty of collegiate experience, but some concerns over his performance in wood bat leagues.

20. Seattle Mariners – Kameron Misner, OF, Missouri

The Mariners have trended toward a college player the drafts, and with six of their last seven first-round selections. With the way this class is working out, they’d ideally like to attack the college hitting group, and with Misner still on the board, they have a chance to get arguably the biggest raw power in the college bat class. Misner’s year has been a lot of power, walks, and strikeouts without much else, so that has pushed him down the draft board, but the power is undeniable, and if he can get on base at a solid clip, the Mariners will live with a less-than-adequate contact rate.

21. Atlanta Braves – George Kirby, RHP, Elon

For the Braves, there could be a number of approaches for the team with their two first-round selections. They could go for pure upside with both spots, which could mean a prep arm here, or they could work to spread money throughout the draft by going with a college-heavy draft. This is going to be the most likely approach, a middle-ground scenario with a college/prep split of one bat and one arm. As far as arms go, Kirby would be an excellent addition to the abundant stable of arms the Braves already have in tow. He’s arguably got the best present command of his stuff, and that stuff is not just command/control type of velocity, as he works in the mid-90s with his fastball and has a very effective curve as his primary offspeed pitch.

22. Tampa Bay Rays – Michael Busch, OF, North Carolina

Tampa Bay has three selections in the first round, but this is their first, so while they have some ability to maneuver, they will also have to be smart with their money. Last year, with three picks, they went with 2 high school selections and one college pick. That matches up with a nearly 50/50 split between prep and college picks over the last few years, so they will likely focus primarily on finding the best value for all three picks. Busch could remind many in Tampa Bay of a player they just traded away in Jake Bauers, with a smaller stature guy that has worked primarily at first base in college but has the athleticism to handle the outfield and the bat to play at either spot.

23. Colorado Rockies – Brett Baty, 3B, Texas HS

The Rockies have had multiple first-round picks in each of the last four drafts, so this is going to be a bit interesting to see how the team approaches having just one selection to utilize in the first round. In large part over the last four seasons, they have gone with high school players, drafting a prep player 6 out of 9 selections. One notable thing the Rockies have done of late is focus on pitching, but with the one selection, it’s very probable that the Rockies will focus on getting the best player available. At this point, grabbing one of the best power bats in the entire prep class would be a very nice grab, even if he’s at a position where the Rockies do have some depth in their farm system at the corner infield spots.

24. Cleveland Indians – Keoni Cavaco, 3B, California HS

Cleveland has exclusively utilized the prep ranks in the first round over the last four seasons, making six selections, all from high school (or preparatory school). Even with one of the lowest bonus pools in the 2019 draft, the Indians may change course to some degree and pursue a college bat or college arm, but the chance to bring in prep power here is too much to pass up with Cavaco. The California prepster has been jumping up boards all spring as a potential plus defender, above-average athleticism, and potential 70-grade raw power as he continues his physical development. Questions on his hit tool have been the most prominent from scouts, but a few teams have reported high marks on Cavaco’s bat-to-ball skills, and this could be a spot for the Indians to cash in on a potential premium prep player for this spot in the draft.

25. Los Angeles Dodgers – Hunter Barco, LHP, Florida HS

With two selections in the first round, the Dodgers, who usually focus strongly on upside, can go after a prep arm that they prefer. While I don’t have any indications that they like Barco over any other high school pitcher, he fits the type of arm that they like to target in the past, with present stuff and potential to add on top of that present stuff, especially from the left side. Barco has been moving up many teams’ boards due to his present stuff and his unique arm slot making him a one-of-a-kind on the draft board.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks – Brennan Malone, RHP, Florida HS

With nearly more extra bonus money than the second-largest pool than the Red Sox have total, the Diamondbacks could really make a big push on some of the guys falling due to a high price tag. In this scenario, that guy is Malone, who could make a good argument for the top prep arm in the class but finds himself coming off the board here due to what has been reported as a fairly high signing bonus demand in order to get him to walk away from his commitment to Florida.

27. Chicago Cubs – Seth Johnson, RHP, Campbell

The Cubs have not selected a prep player in the first round since 2012, a streak of six collegiate picks. Based on the success of each pick, they may want to go for a bat, but they need quality arms in their system, and there are plenty available here, though none have both a combination of upside plus competition that Johnson does as he’s transitioned to the mound this year and is already showing an excellent feel for four pitches and touching 97-98 in starts. Adding polish as he moves up the system would allow him to be a potential mid-rotation starter or better.

28. Milwaukee Brewers – Jack Leiter, RHP, New Jersey HS

Since 2014, the Brewers have used 5 of 8 first-round selections on high school players, though they’ve focused primarily on bats. With a small bonus pool in the 2019 draft, the Brewers could target a prep arm here, hoping to get him for less than his hitting counterparts. Leiter has been a guy getting plenty of attention due to an advanced feel for the game on the mound and the baseball background of his family. He could be a guy that rises much higher than this, and there are a few rumblings that he could be a tough sign, though there have also been reports on the other side as well.

29. Oakland Athletics – Tyler Callihan, 3B, Florida HS

While the Athletics typically focus on college players in the draft (6 of 7 picks since 2014), they have used picks in the second round or even their first-rounder to grab top talent if it happens to land in their lap. Callihan’s flirtation behind the dish defensively as well as his big-time power swing could make him a target here as he already has been graded with plus raw power with potential for double-plus power. He’s not going to kick Matt Chapman off the hot corner defensively, but he can hold his own. If he does transition to catcher, however, he would instantly add plenty more value.

30. New York Yankees – J.J. Goss, RHP, Texas HS

The Yankees long-range drafting is heavily college, but the last three drafts, they’ve gone with two prep bats and one college arm. In this draft slot, they have a chance to pick between the remaining college arms as well as a deep prep pitching class. Goss had a big-time showing at NHSI and has a present two-pitch plus offering already with potential double-plus grades on both pitches as well as some feel for his change and good physical projection.

31. Los Angeles Dodgers – Anthony Volpe, SS, New Jersey HS

After nabbing a top prep arm with their first selection, the Dodgers grab a guy who has been flying up the board due to his impressive athleticism. He likely could stick in the middle defensively, whether that’s staying at short or moving to second or center field. At his best, Volpe has shown potential for above-average power to go with his potential plus contact skills and plus raw speed. There are edges that are still rough and need smoothing out, but Volpe could be a guy from a cold-weather prep situation that really excels as a pro.

32. Houston Astros – Matt Canterino, RHP, Rice

Staying in the state, the Astros are able to work with their tight budget in this draft by finding one of the more accomplished college arms, and unlike Rice arms of the past, Canterino doesn’t come with a red flag of usage attached. He could move very quickly, and with a good feel for manipulating his pitches already, he could benefit greatly from work with the Astros system on his pitches, using his arsenal to get to Houston in a hurry.

The Diamondbacks have the only two free agent compensation picks this year, selections #33 and #34.

33. Arizona Diamondbacks – Rece Hinds, 3B, Florida HS

Through the summer, Hinds displayed the most raw power on the showcase circuit. Whether he’ll end up at the hot corner or moving across the diamond to first base is yet to be seen, but the power could be very nice in the Diamondbacks system, where there are plenty of excellent athletes, but few with the power upside that Hinds possesses. He does have a big arm that could allow him to move to a corner outfield spot as long as he doesn’t fill out too fast.

34. Arizona Diamondbacks – Noah Song, RHP, Navy

With 7 picks in the first 2 rounds, the Diamondbacks would likely be best positioned to take the risk of Song’s Navy commitment. Griffin Jax has shown that military players can be more than worth the wait, and Song is in a whole different level better than Jax with his elite velocity and potential double-plus slider to go with a feel for two other offspeed pitches as well. Without the Navy commitment, it’s very feasible that Song is the first pitcher off the board in the 2019 draft. Once he returns, the Diamondbacks would have an elite arm to work with, and with their collection of picks, they can absorb the risk of his military commitment and time away from the game.

The rest of the selections (outside of the Pirates pick at #37) are the Competitive Balance, Round A picks. Interestingly, three of six CBA picks were traded this offseason.

35. Miami Marlins – Braden Shewmake, SS, Texas A&M

Let’s be honest, there’s not a single position in the Marlins farm system that is what you would call “deep”. Adding a quick-moving, sure-fire shortstop would definitely not hurt at all, even if Shewmake may not have a tremendous offensive upside, likely profiling more as a high-end utility player or a second-division regular with quality defense at short that won’t hurt in any way offensively. Any team can really find a spot for a guy like that.

36. Tampa Bay Rays – Carter Stewart, RHP, Eastern Florida JC

After grabbing a very good college bat with their first pick, the Rays have the opportunity to be more risky with this selection, and Stewart would really fit a high-reward risk. After passing on the Braves’ signing bonus offer, Stewart has put up good numbers this spring, but he’s not putting up quite the numbers that many feel like he should be against the competition he’s facing. He has seen his raw stuff ticking back to where it was last spring when he was considered one of the top prep arms in the draft, so he could turn out to be quite an excellent value this late in the first round.

37. Pittsburgh Pirates – Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Alabama HS

To pair with their college arm they grabbed earlier in the draft, the Pirates snag an excellent talent that hasn’t shown up yet in one of my mocks, but it’s definitely not due to a lack of talent. Henderson is a bit of a “tweener” as a guy who has the present skills to handle shortstop but the frame and very likely development that will make third base his destination before he reaches MLB. Henderson has a good all-fields approach at the plate right now that should grow to more power as he fills into his frame, potentially giving a plus contact/plus power combination.

38. New York Yankees – Will Wilson, SS, North Carolina State

Don’t be surprised if Wilson goes off the board much sooner than this. He was someone I strongly considered within the top 10 as recently as last week within my mock, but a recent injury has some concern potential if he can’t return at full strength by the time the draft rolls around. Wilson should be able to stick at short, but at the least will play in the dirt, and his offensive profile is one without any one plus tool, but potentially all tools grading out as above-average.

39. Minnesota Twins – Quinn Priester, RHP, Illinois HS

A cold-weather arm that is getting plenty of late hype ending up with the Twins seems just too perfect, but if he’s on the board here, Priester would be a tremendous value. He is still really getting his stride on the season, but he’s already flashing improved feel for his whole repertoire, led by a mid-90s fastball that he pairs primarily with a sharp curve. He has both physical projection and present high spin rate on his pitches that indicate that he could be a quick riser once his body fills in.

40. Tampa Bay Rays – Kody Hoese, 3B, Tulane

With two guys that likely will be eating up near their slot numbers, this would be an excellent spot for the Rays to grab a top talent while adding in some impressive performance as there may not be anyone in college baseball who has had a better spring than Hoese, who is leading NCAA in home runs while posting a .500+ on base and a .800+ slugging. He’s old for the class and not going to be elite defensively, but he should be a guy who moves quickly with big-time raw power.

41. Texas Rangers – Blake Walston, LHP, North Carolina HS

With two selections before the second round, the Rangers have already grabbed one player who will likely cost a pretty penny to keep from college, so going after a projection arm that may be considered a “reach” would be a potentially excellent choice here. Walston is long and lanky and left-handed, with plenty of projection but also plenty of raw ability. He may not show up this high on anyone’s rankings, but he’s the type of pitcher who could be drafted earlier than consensus rankings by a team that believes their development system can maximize what could be a very high ceiling.

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