MLB Mock Draft Monday, Version 3.1

The 2019 MLB draft will take place June 3-5. This is the third of the mock drafts that I will put out, looking to put out one per week all the way up to the draft.

Before we get into the picks, let’s start with a quick look at the bonus pools for each team:

Arizona $16.09M
Baltimore $13.82M
Kansas City $13.11M
Miami $13.05M
Chicago (A) $11.57M
Atlanta $11.53M
Texas $11.02M
San Diego $10.76M
Detroit $10.40M
Tampa Bay $10.33 M
Pittsburgh $9.94M
Minnesota $9.91M
Cincinnati $9.53M
San Francisco $8.71M
Toronto $8.46M
New York (N) $8.22M
Los Angeles (N) $8.07M
Los Angeles (A) $7.61M
Seattle $7.56M
New York (A) $7.46M
Colorado $7.09M
St. Louis $6.90M
Philadelphia $6.48M
Cleveland $6.15M
Washington $5.98M
Chicago (N) $5.83M
Oakland $5.61M
Houston $5.36M
Milwaukee $5.15M
Boston $4.79M

Now to the draft! We will make picks for every selection through the first collective bargaining picks, which means every team but Boston will have a selection…

1. Baltimore Orioles – Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State

Adley is hitting .419/.585/.812 this season with an incredible 51/22 BB/K ratio. The Beavers have taken to playing their star at first base just to get his bat into the lineup more frequently, and that very well could be something the Orioles do down the line as well. Adley has an incredibly high floor at this point, yet he has the upside of being the rare hitting superstar from behind the plate in the modern game.

2. Kansas City Royals – Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Cal

Andrew Vaughn is incredibly not having as good a season this year as he did last year. However, when you set the bar at a .402/.531/.819 year, that’s understandable. Incredibly, in his three amazing years for Cal, Vaughn has hit .372/.486/.684 with 46 home runs over 142 games with a 100/68 BB/K ratio. That kind of production is what is going to allow Vaughn to be one of the top 5 picks off the board in June, eschewing the typical concerns about a college first baseman.

3. Chicago White Sox – C.J. Abrams, SS, Georgia HS

Abrams and Witt seem to be back and forth for many, but it seems that the White Sox prefer Abrams, so if the Royals do select Andrew Vaughn (who would be the Pale Hose top choice here), it’s likely Abrams would the pick here. The White Sox could surprise and go for Nick Lodolo or either Riley Greene or Corbin Carroll. Abrams would give the White Sox a sure-fire up-the-middle defender with tremendous contact and speed that should play well wherever he’s put down the line.

4. Miami Marlins – Bobby Witt, Jr., SS, Texas HS

Witt could have the loudest set of tools in the entire draft, and it’s really prospect fatigue and two elite college bats that have pushed him down even this far. In likely 90% of draft seasons, Witt goes #1 or #2. He’ll easily become the premier prospect in a remade Marlins farm system, and if he can see his tools mature quickly, he could become one of the elite prospects in the game and give suffering Marlins fans a potential superstar to cheer.

5. Detroit Tigers – Riley Greene, OF, Florida HS

Greene is beginning to be a personal favorite of mine, as he’s made the transition to the outfield from the infield, and he’s shown well at every opportunity this spring, albeit not blowing anyone away, but he’s even has his elite moments. Greene’s hit tool is quite possibly the best in the prep class, and he has the makeup in his bat profile to be the type of hitter that could take time to develop his power, but would be impactful as an all-fields hitter until that, akin to Christian Yelich’s development.

6. San Diego Padres – Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia HS

Espino likely isn’t in play earlier than this, but really, the way he’s pitching, it’s hard not to love his work and consider him at any point behind Adley. Fellow draft writer Matt Powers of Talking Chop has considered Espino the top arm of the entire draft throughout the process, and that could be exactly what entices San Diego, seeking an elite talent, to bring in Espino. With the maturation of their first wave of prospects hitting the majors this season and next, the Padres are likely in no rush to push this selection to the majors, so they can be patient and select based on pure upside.

7. Cincinnati Reds – Nick Lodolo, LHP, TCU

Entering the college season, Lodolo was regarded as the top college arm. A long, lanky lefty, Lodolo has been solid for TCU since spurning the Pirates as the 41st overall pick in 2016, but the 2019 season as he ramps up for the draft is proving to be his best by far. He’s currently posting a 2.20 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with a 12/77 BB/K over 65 innings thus far on the season. While Lodolo may not have elite velocity, he knows how to mix an effective grouping of pitches, and he could find himself certainly cracking the top 10, perhaps even the top 5.

8. Texas Rangers – Corbin Carroll, OF, Washington HS

Carroll remains in this same slot for a second straight week as the last of what is becoming a seeming distinct top 4 group of the prep hitting class with Witt, Abrams, Greene, and Carroll. The Rangers will hope one of those four is on the board here, though they’ve not been shy in recent years from prep arms, and they could be a market for that class at this point.

9. Atlanta Braves – J.J. Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt

Bleday took over the NCAA home run lead over the weekend, and his talent may actually exceed his gaudy statistics (.361/.462/.762, 17 HR). What has been impressive is that while he’s seen his power output uptick significantly in 2019, it’s not changed his profile of contact and discipline, as he’s nearly even with walks and strikeouts on the season, and over his career, he’s posted a 94/79 BB/K ratio. Bleday is at least an above-average defender in right field as well, which would fit well with the Braves’ focus on defense within their system and big league club.

10. San Francisco Giants – Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV

Stott has been nearly universal atop a very deep collegiate middle infield class this spring, and his production has certainly been worthy of that placement at the plate (.338/.492/.614, 7 HR, 9 SB, 43/27 BB/K over 38 games) along with his plus defense should have him as the first shortstop off the board in June. The Giants do currently have Brandon Crawford under an expensive deal, but that expires after 2021, and with his mature offensive and defensive profile, Stott could immediately step into the system as the heir apparent.

11. Toronto Blue Jays – Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State

In his first two seasons for the Sun Devils, Bishop was a free-swinging outfielder with the raw tools to play centerfield in a rightfielder’s body, a rare skill set. Adjustments to his swing and some significant work in the cage to build his skills in zone and pitch recognition has allowed Bishop to have an incredible draft season (.380/.508/.840, 17 HR, 11 SB, 34/34 BB/K in 21 games). Bishop has the athleticism to potentially begin his MLB career in center, but he will likely slide to right field long-term with above-average speed and double-plus power.

12. New York Mets – Josh Jung, Texas Tech

Jung’s stock atop the collegiate third base class has really not been challenged, but his performance has slipped at the plate while the reports on his defense have improved quite a bit. Jung has the swing and frame to believe that he could add power to accompany his career .342 batting average in college, but he’s always shown more gap power than over-the-fence power (43 doubles, 9 triples, 23 home runs). The Mets have a depth of middle infielders, but a bat like Jung’s that could play at either infield corner would be valuable.

13. Minnesota Twins – Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia

After seeing a number of ideal options come off the board (Stott, Jung, Lodolo), the Twins could choose to go for a prep player here and really jump the market in a range of the draft that should be fairly college-heavy. However, the way this particular draft has played out, the chance to get one of the highest-upside arms in the entire draft in Manoah would be something that would be difficult to pass up. The 6’6″, 260-pound righty has moved from a swing role to a pure starter in 2019, and the results have been incredible (1.81 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 15/95 BB/K over 69 2/3 innings).

14. Philadelphia Phillies – Zach Thompson, LHP, Kentucky

With injury history that limited him to just 31 innings in 2018, teams were rightfully on a wait-and-see mode with Thompson to enter the spring, but he’s done all he’s needed to in order to impress, making 10 starts, tossing 62 2/3 innings, with a 2.15 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and a 20/91 BB/K ratio, allowing only a single home run on the season. Thompson’s raw stuff is a sure #3 with a potential of a #2 due to his handedness, but he also has an elite slider that could give him a floor as a shut-down reliever.

15. Los Angeles Angels – Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto JC

Building their farm system to the point of being a near-top-10 system has allowed the Angels to take smart “chances” on big talent. Rutledge would be an excellent gamble if he’s still on the board, as he may climb up beyond even this spot with his 6’8″, 250+ pound frame impressing scouts all spring with not just velocity, but also feel for manipulating his heater’s shape along with a potential plus slider.

16. Arizona Diamondbacks – Will Wilson, SS, North Carolina State

The Diamondbacks have the biggest signing bonus pool by far in this draft, with 7 selections on day 1 of the draft, including 4 before the second round. While that would typically indicate a prep pick, in this spot, the Diamondbacks could instead choose to add talent to their system and save money as the prep class really has not been cracked much in this scenario. Wilson is a 3-year starter who has the hitting talent to play (.311/.386/.577 over 159 career college games with 50 doubles and 36 home runs), even if he doesn’t stick at short, though his hands and instincts should allow him to stick up the middle. Wilson was also recently injured, which could keep the price on his impressive skills low.

17. Washington Nationals – Matthew Allan, RHP, Florida HS

The Nationals could go a number of different directions with this pick, depending on how the draft unfolds. In this spot, there are a number of the top prep players still on the board, so the Nationals could jump that market by getting their top player in the market. Allan and Malone have been getting nearly equal ratings from scouts with most thinking Allan may have the lower overall ceiling, but the better chance to reach his ceiling. He’s shown well this spring, and he could end up being a big find on a team with “ace” pitchers already locked up for quite a while ahead of him.

18. Pittsburgh Pirates – Brennan Malone, RHP, Florida HS

Interestingly the top comparison that I’ve gotten from scouts this spring on Malone is Pirates ace Jameson Taillon. Malone has an impressive amount of spin on his fastball, and many believe that his curve and slider could support his fastball such that minimal use of his change could be effective (Taillon uses his change less than 5% of the time, but is still quite effective). Many view Malone as the top prep pitcher in the class, and he could potentially be the first high school arm off the board.

19. St. Louis Cardinals – George Kirby, RHP, Elon

Kirby is a guy who would seemingly fit the profile of a collegiate pitcher that the Cardinals draft and develop well – a high-floor type with potential plus pitch(es) that could elevate him from a #3/4 to a #2 or better. Kirby has posted elite control numbers this year, with a 5/65 BB/K over 55 2/3 innings, adding a 2.91 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Kirby has some detractors that believe he hasn’t faced the toughest competition over his years at Elon, but his 1.38 ERA and 1/24 BB/K over 13 innings in the Cape Cod League last summer should quiet that.

20. Seattle Mariners – Michael Busch, OF, North Carolina

Busch has been an impressive hitter over his two seasons as a starter for the Tar Heels, though many feel he’s athletic enough that he’s not locked into first base defensively. Showing off his wood bat skills last summer in the Cape (.322/.450/.567) heightened his profile as well. Pairing Busch with Evan White would give the Mariners two athletic hitters that can play both the outfield and first base, with Busch having more of a power profile and White more of a contact profile.

21. Atlanta Braves – Hunter Barco, LHP, Florida HS

While some other arms may rank higher right now on lists, Barco has rocketed up lists this spring with an impressive performance in fall ball that took him from someone that few knew outside of his raw velocity and projectable size as a junior to one of the top talents in the prep class for 2019. Barco has low-90s velocity from an unusual arm angle that works well from his 6’4-6’5 inch frame. He has a lot of similarity to Andrew Miller and could be a pitcher that takes some time to develop, but with the depth of arms in the Braves system, they have that luxury.

22. Tampa Bay Rays – Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor

In all seriousness, a healthy Langeliers is a better draft prospect than last season’s #2 overall selection (and consensus top 50 overall prospect), Joey Bart. However, injury has not allowed Langeliers to showcase his defensive skills, which allowed him to earn a Gold Glove behind the dish as a freshman. The wrist injury has sapped his power (21 HR his first two seasons, 3 in 2019), but a .316/.394/.462 line shows Langeliers still has plenty of skills at the plate that should allow for high contact with excellent doubles power and 20ish home run power.

23. Colorado Rockies – Maurice Hampton, OF, Tennessee HS

Hampton’s an exceptional enough athlete that he’s an SEC commit in both football and baseball. While that shows just how incredible his athleticism is, the split focus on two sports does have Hampton a bit raw. However, Hampton, much like two-sport star Taylor Trammell a couple years back, has elite raw talent that could absolutely explode once he focuses that talent all in one sport. Hampton has the defensive tools to be an elite defender in the outfield and the arm strength to work at any of the outfield positions. His plus to plus-plus speed should allow him to cover plenty of ground in the Colorado outfield, and his raw tools should allow him to show plenty of speed and power, especially as he learns to use the big gaps in the Coors outfield.

24. Cleveland Indians – Kameron Misner, OF, Missouri

Misner has arguably the most raw power of any hitter in the college hitter class, though he’s struggled to put that power into production, with a total of 20 home runs over his 134 collegiate games. He is surprisingly athletic for his size, which has led to 46 stolen bases. He does have potential 70-grade raw power, quality defense, and the athletic ability to play all three outfield spots. He still needs to learn how to consistently tap into that elite raw power to flourish in MLB, but he should be in play much earlier on the board than this, so the Indians would be happy to have the chance on his talent right here.

25. Los Angeles Dodgers – Jack Leiter, RHP, New Jersey HS

There are potentially prep arms left on the board who have more present and even potential velocity. There are prep arms still on the board with better raw breaking stuff. Leiter is going to be 19 on draft day, and there are plenty that will still even be 17. However, the righty from a cold weather state has consistently shown not only some of the best raw stuff in the class, but also some of the best polish on the mound, especially in mental approach to the game. His baseball background will also appeal heavily to teams, making this a perfect choice in this spot for the Dodgers, who are always looking for upside.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks – Noah Song, RHP, Navy

Interestingly, D1Baseball.com continues to be the primary trumpeteers of Song, as he’s not in the top 50 for Fangraphs or Baseball America, but he’s been pumping out upper-90s fastballs all spring with some incredible analytical data on his pitches to go with his 1.36 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 28/118 BB/K over 66 innings. I’ve talked with multiple scouts for big league clubs now who mention Song as a guy who their team is asking them to investigate, so there is a genuine buzz on him that should have him coming off the board early on.

27. Chicago Cubs – Matt Canterino, RHP, Rice

A member of the Rice rotation from the moment he stepped onto campus, Canterino has been productive each season, continuing his success this season that he saw last year. He had the chance to pitch in the Cape Cod league this past summer, and he really excelled there as well. Canterino is not a guy who comes at you with mid-90s stuff, but he can touch the mid-90s and has a frame that could add another tick or two as a pro. He works in three offspeed pitches that he knows how to work well, and though he has a bit of an odd delivery, he repeats it well, and he could be a mid-rotation starter fairly quick.

28. Milwaukee Brewers – Rece Hinds, 3B, Florida HS

Hinds’ stock fall in the middle of the spring feels a bunch like Brice Turang last spring, a guy who was very highly regarded coming into the summer, had some up-and-down over his summer, and hasn’t really set the world on fire this spring. There are few in this class in the prep or college ranks with more natural power, especially from the right side. He will move off shortstop, but with a plus to double-plus arm, he could be an asset at third base defensively. The fit here with the Brewers seems very good, though with a low signing pool, Milwaukee may choose to focus on collegiate selections.

29. Oakland Athletics – Quinn Priester, RHP, Illinois HS

Considered more of a fringy day one prospect coming into the spring, Priester has firmly established himself at least in the 30-50 range, though he could go even higher with some teams. He’s sported an excellent curve that was primarily self-taught, and his time with summer showcases allowed him instruction that has seen him manipulate his fastball this spring with consistency along with show off an extra tick or two on the top end of his velocity. Continued instruction could allow him to really explode as a prospect.

30. New York Yankees – Seth Johnson, RHP, Campbell

Johnson moved off shortstop to the mound this season, and he’s taken quite well to the hill, sporting a 17/52 BB/K over 44 innings as well as a 3.07 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He’s not got a hulking frame, which has some wondering if there’s a lot more than the 93-96 he’s shown this spring, but the Yankees have a history of taking arms like this and finding another gear, and Johnson could really be a tremendous get for the organization if he falls this far in the draft.

31. Los Angeles Dodgers – Carter Stewart, RHP, Eastern Florida JC

In raw pitches, Stewart really doesn’t have a match in this class, but whether it’s distraction from the case against the Braves after they didn’t sign him due to a reported injury after taking him 8th overall last June. After a rough start to the year, Stewart has righted the ship this season, but he’s still not dominating quite the way a guy with his raw stuff would expect to at his level. However, the gamble on raw tools here would be ideal for the Dodgers.

32. Houston Astros – Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson

A long, lanky shortstop that swings from both sides of the plate with tremendous athleticism, Davidson is a guy who would seem to fit much higher on this list if one were to only look at his work with Clemson (.287/.398/.520, 37 HR, 34 SB over 165 career games), but may seem high here based on his work in two years in the Cape Cod League (.202/.304/.266, 3 HR, 6 SB in 75 games). Davidson’s collegiate production fits an Astro blueprint that could be used well to potentially develop a future super-utility player.

The Diamondbacks have the only two free agent compensation picks this year, selections #33 and #34.

33. Arizona Diamondbacks – J.J. Goss, RHP, Texas HS

Goss was impressive last summer, but at NHSI, he showed an extra notch on his velocity, sitting in the 92-95 range, per reports, and touching 97 (some guns had 98) along with showing off much-improved feel for his change and a plus slider. His delivery is less than ideal, but he tends to find the same release point each time, and with the chance to gamble on upside here, the Diamondbacks could bet on Goss continuing his forward development once he was in their system.

34. Arizona Diamondbacks – Brett Baty, 3B, Texas HS

While his fellow prep power bat from the hot corner, Rece Hinds, has the chance to be a positive contributor defensively, Baty’s biggest question has long been his defense, and this season has seen him add some strength at the apparent cost of his agility, which could expedite his move to first base, putting even more pressure on his bat. The bat may be one of the most powerful in the class, which is impressive as his swing is quick through the zone, allowing him to fight off pitches and potentially be a hitter for both average and power as he develops.

The rest of the selections (outside of the Pirates pick at #37) are the Competitive Balance, Round A picks. Interestingly, three of six CBA picks were traded this offseason.

35. Miami Marlins – John Doxakis, LHP, Texas A&M

After joining the Aggies rotation full-time last season, Doxakis became a favorite of those who approach the collegiate game from an analytically-focused mindset. He’s only added to that with an excellent 2019 thus far, posting a 1.87 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his first 10 starts with an exceptional 9/71 BB/K ratio over 62 2/3 innings. He will be in play starting in the 20s, and he could be a very smart choice here for the Marlins, who could see him push up their farm system quickly.

36. Tampa Bay Rays – Logan Wyatt, 1B, Louisville

A big lefty-swinging hitter, Wyatt has impressed a number of people this year with his athleticism while still keeping up the impressive production that he displayed last year, turning some of his doubles into home runs already with a frame that should definitely lean to future big-time power. Wyatt has been compared very strongly to former Rays prospect Jake Bauers, and he could be a good fit in their development system, moving quickly with a patient approach that has produced 111 walks in just 122 career collegiate games at the plate.

37. Pittsburgh Pirates – Jerrion Ealy, OF, Mississippi HS

There has been some worry of late that Ealy may be a tough sign, and having already taken one of the top prep arms in the class, the Pirates may not have the funds to line up Ealy as well and sign him away from playing both football and baseball at Ole Miss. If his signing situation was more stable, Ealy would be in play much higher on the board as his contact-oriented approach means he rarely whiffs, but there’s also double-plus speed and potential plus power with his natural raw power.

38. New York Yankees – Tyler Callihan, 3B, Florida HS

The Yankees with their pick acquired in the Sonny Gray trade could go a lot of ways here, but many feel that they’ll pursue what has shown to be an impressive and deep corner prep power class. Callihan’s lefty swing would seem to be grooved perfectly for Yankee stadium, though he would need to work on his defensive footwork to stick at third and his swing and miss at the plate. A similar profile (nowhere near so in size, though) to what the Yankees drafted when they drafted a young Aaron Judge, and that seemed to work out fairly well.

39. Minnesota Twins – Nasim Nunez, SS, Georgia HS

Many could see this as an odd fit, given the depth up the middle in the Twins system and the lack of size for Nunez to move to any corner position, but that could be exactly why Nunez could be an excellent fit. He has played very, very well up the middle defensively and should stick for sure, if not be a very good defender wherever he sticks. His elite speed and bat control allows him to impact the game, but he’s also got strength to his frame enough to drive the ball to the gaps.

40. Tampa Bay Rays – Kendall Williams, RHP, Florida HS

Williams is a scout’s dream on the mound. He stands 6’6″ tall with a frame that could add projection, though he already is working in the low- to mid-90s with consistent delivery and an impressive pair of offspeed offerings. The Vanderbilt commit is incredibly hard for any hitter to square up, but he’s shown to be particularly tough on righties this year. The Rays like to develop their pitchers, and Williams is a guy who could use that sort of step-by-step path with a potentially very good payout at the end.

41. Texas Rangers – Braden Shewmake, SS, Texas A&M

Shewmake is a very interesting case in this draft. He is a very steady player offensively and defensively that certainly could stick at shortstop, but he has the athleticism and raw tools to be able to work at multiple positions defensively. He’s also been a player who may end up having his biggest number offensive season in his college career in his freshman season, but he’s been very steady, hitting .321-.328 each season with a .374-.395 OBP throughout his collegiate career. While Shewmake may not fit the typical Rangers high-ceiling pick, he could be a guy who moves quickly and fits a strategy to help the major league team quickly as well.

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