Atlanta Braves 2019-2020 Offseason Overview
The Atlanta Braves won the National League East for the second straight season in 2019, but the team fell short to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS. With November upon us, let’s look at the offseason!
Atlanta Braves 2019/2020 offseason
Rather than going through a huge offseason plan all at once, we’ll deal with each section of the offseason one-by-one, from in-house free agents and options, arbitration candidates, then Rule 5 eligible players, and finally minor league free agents to review the Braves internal decisions. Then we will go through the exterior free agents and finally a team-by-team review of trade options. Last, but certainly not least, I’ll give a “Ben as GM” view of what I’d do as the Braves this offseason. This is going to be a long piece, so pop a bag of popcorn, and get comfy in your chair. Here we go:
Atlanta Braves Free Agents
Jerry Blevins
Francisco Cervelli
Josh Donaldson
Adeiny Hechavarria
Matt Joyce
Dallas Keuchel
Chris Martin
Brian McCann
Darren O’Day
Anthony Swarzak
Josh Tomlin
This is a significant list, though obviously some are much more important than others. As far as retention goes, Donaldson should be priority #1 from this list, and there is a good argument that he’s the #1 priority for the entire offseason. Brian McCann has already retired and will not return.
The guys who will be good discussion points on this list will be led by Keuchel, who gave the Braves an excellent run in his 2/3 season with the team, posting a 3.75 ERA over 112 2/3 innings. However, Keuchel also posted the highest walk rate since his first season. His FIP on the 2019 season was nearly a run higher than his ERA. While he offered an inning-eating arm to the Braves in 2019, I would let him walk.
The other intriguing options to bring back would be two mid-season acquisitions, Chris Martin and Francisco Cervelli. While other guys like Hechavarria and Joyce could be of interest depending on their price versus other options on the market, Martin and Cervelli should be targeted by the Braves. Cervelli, if he’s healthy enough to catch, could be both an excellent catcher to have onboard for the team now, and he could be a great mentor for Alex Jackson in 2020 along with other catching prospects who are soon to come up the system.
Martin was a rare bullpen arm that did not allow walks or home runs, allowing just one walk and one home run in his entire Atlanta Braves tenure, spanning 17 2/3 innings and 20 appearances (he did strike out 22). He should be a priority arm, in my opinion, and the Braves should be willing to go multiple years on re-signing Martin.
Beyond those, the others are not a priority and may be back if they come very cheap, but they should not be heavily pursued.
Options
Tyler Flowers ($6M, $2M buyout)
Billy Hamilton ($7.5M, $1M buyout)
Nick Markakis ($6M, $2M buyout)
Julio Teheran ($12M, $1M buyout)
Option decisions are coming fast and furious, so many of these decisions could already be made before this is published. It would not surprise if the Braves pick up at least two of these and potentially three, with Hamilton being the sure decline candidate. While Teheran returning makes sense, I personally would decline Flowers and Markakis.
Arbitration
Charlie Culberson ($1.8M)
Grant Dayton ($0.8M)
Adam Duvall ($3.8M)
Mike Foltynewicz ($7.5M)
Shane Greene ($6.5M)
Luke Jackson ($1.9M)
John Ryan Murphy ($1.2M)
Dansby Swanson ($3.3M)
The estimated numbers behind each player are from MLB Trade Rumors’ arb estimates (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html). None of those numbers look crazy, but at those prices, I’d be very surprised to see Murphy return, and Dayton and Duvall would be potentially replaceable as well. It is the first year he’s eligible, but it would be interesting to see if the Atlanta Braves attempt to lock up Dansby to a long-term deal. Otherwise, I’d imagine the rest are all signed, though I could see Jackson or Folty potentially being part of a trade this offseason.
New Atlanta Braves Rule 5 Eligible Players (2016 college draft, 2015 HS draft, 2015 IFA)
Jose Bermudez
Thomas Burrows
Corbin Clouse
William Contreras
Tucker Davidson
Jasseel De La Cruz
Juan Morales
Tyler Neslony
Jefrey Ramos
Cristian Pache
Brandon White
This list is very interesting. After plenty of players that will be trimmed from the 40-man with free agency losses, options declined, and potential arbitration players declined, a very good class of Rule 5 eligible players come out.
The easy, obvious protects are Davidson and Pache, who should impact the team in 2020. They’ll get protected, as will Contreras. After that, the tough decisions will be De La Cruz, as he’s in the upper minors and has impressive raw stuff that would be the sort of guy who gets selected in a Rule 5. Guys like Burrows and Clouse often get selected in a Rule 5 draft, so they could be guys that cause some discussion among Braves brass, though I’d likely roll the dice with both by leaving them unprotected.
Other (semi-notable) Rule 5 Eligible Players
Alex Aquino
Caleb Dirks
Josh Graham
Kurt Hoekstra
Kevin Josephina
Deyvis Julian
Sean McLaughlin
Luis Mora
Jonathan Morales
Phil Pfeifer
Bradley Roney
Alejandro Salazar
Luis Valenzuela
These are players that have been eligible before. Graham made it through Rule 5 after 2018 and then had a better year in AA in 2019, so he could be selected. Roney showed very well in the Arizona Fall League and has always had intriguing stuff, but health issues have limited his ability to make it to the majors. The other two that would be interesting are two guys who made big value jumps in 2019 in Pfeifer and Hoekstra, finding excellent success in new roles, Pfeifer moving into the rotation and Hoekstra moving from a hitter to a pitcher. Either could be a flyer type, though much more likely to move in the minor-league portion of the Rule 5 if not protected there.
New Minor League Free Agents (2013 draft, 2012 IFA)
Ray-Patrick Didder
Jason Hursh
Carlos Martinez
Riley Unroe
The Atlanta Braves could lose one of my favorite players to follow since I started writing about the organization in Didder, who is a guy with quality defense in the infield and outfield, a strong arm, and excellent speed – seemingly an ideal bench guy. He could be a guy to get signed quickly on the minor league free agent market if the Braves don’t retain him. The fall of Hursh to this list is incredible, frankly.
Total Minor League Free Agents
Lane Adams
Jonathan Aro
Andres Blanco
Ryan Casteel
Jason Creasy
Claudio Custodio
Jose Rafael De Paula
Jordan Harrison
Sean Kazmar Jr.
Connor Lien
Daniel Lockhart
Jack Lopez
Raffy Lopez
Luis Marte
Tyler Matzek
Ariel Montesino
Ben Rowen
Andres Santiago
Caleb Thielbar
Andy Wilkins
Most of these guys are guys who were acquired or signed as minor league free agents in the first place. Many will likely return or be replaced with similar players. I would foresee Matzek being the guy the team tries hardest to retain after his showing in just 12 1/3 innings after signing mid-August with the club as a lefty reliever. He struck out 18 over those 12 1/3 innings and showed excellent raw stuff. On a personal level, I’d like to see Lane Adams return as he’s a great guy (and a tremendous social media follow), but if he has a big-league contract somewhere, I’d hope he follows that instead!
Potential Position Free Agents to Target
Matt Adams
Keon Broxton
Asdrubal Cabrera
Kole Calhoun ($14M club option, $1M buyout)
Nicholas Castellanos
Jason Castro
Francisco Cervelli
Robinson Chirinos
Corey Dickerson
Josh Donaldson
Wilmer Flores
Tyler Flowers ($6M option, $2M buyout)
Logan Forsythe
Scooter Gennett
Yan Gomes
Yasmani Grandal
Jedd Gyorko
Josh Harrison
Adeiny Hechavarria
Brock Holt
Jose Iglesias
Jon Jay
Howie Kendrick
Jason Kipnis
Jonathan Lucroy
Martin Maldonado
Mike Moustakas
Marcell Ozuna
Gerardo Parra
Hernan Perez
Martin Prado
Yasiel Puig
Anthony Rendon
Jonathan Schoop
Eric Sogard
Neil Walker
Matt Wieters
Now we get into some of the fun speculation. As with the Atlanta Braves players with options, some of these could be decided by the time this is posted and the player could no longer be on the market. Essentially, the pursuits the Braves could take are in three categories in both pitching and hitting free agents.
The first category is the elite players, players likely to be All-Star level players that will earn 3+ years and $20 million annually in their impending deals. The primary player in that category that the Braves should consider would be bringing back Donaldson. Most likely the team will be out on guys like Rendon, and sinking big money into a guy like Ozuna, Castellanos, or Puig doesn’t make a lot of sense as a pure money play for reasons we’ll explore later.
The next category is the mid-tier guys. That category includes those players likely to demand a shorter-term deal and/or lower annual terms than mentioned before and still likely to be starters on the roster. The primary position in this category to pursue would be a catcher. Of course, bringing in Grandal would be great, but his cost could end up close to the first category players, and that would be more than I’d be comfortable sinking into one catcher. However, the market this season is fairly deep in guys who would be excellent backstops, including bringing back Tyler Flowers at more reasonable terms, Jason Castro, Chirinos, Gomes, or Maldonado.
Finally, we have the bargains and backups. These are guys who would be potential guys to pursue if their cost was low enough as a starter or guys that would be worthy of pursuing as a backup. Finding a multi-position player for the bench would be a very good option, and this market has a number of solid choices from Howie Kendrick to Brock Holt to Eric Sogard to Wilmer Flores to potentially Asdrubal Cabrera. The other position to consider here is a potential outfielder that could either start or platoon, especially if Markakis is not brought back. Dickerson (providing health) or Kole Calhoun (if his option is not picked up) would be potentially excellent options for a short-term deal in the outfield.
Potential Pitching Free Agents to Target
Jake Arrieta (1/$20M opt-out; 2/$40M club option)
Luis Avilan
Dellin Betances
Brad Brach
Madison Bumgarner
Tony Cingrani
Steve Cishek
Tyler Clippard
Gerrit Cole
Jake Diekman
Kyle Gibson
Cole Hamels
Will Harris
Yoshihisa Hirano
Daniel Hudson
Jeremy Jeffress
Dallas Keuchel
Chris Martin
Collin McHugh
Wade Miley
Matt Moore
Jake Odorizzi
Michael Pineda
Drew Pomeranz
Rick Porcello
Sergio Romo
Hector Rondon
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Joe Smith
Will Smith
Stephen Strasburg
Arodys Vizcaino
Michael Wacha
Zack Wheeler
Dan Winkler
Alex Wood
Many Atlanta Braves fans want to see the team go hog-wild on the free-agent starting pitcher market, grabbing Cole AND Bumgarner AND Strasburg. Frankly, I’m not sold that any of those are desirable for price and fit. The Braves should focus their starting pitching pursuits on Zack Wheeler as their top option, especially if he does not receive a qualifying offer.
In the next tier will be top relievers and mid-tier starters. For the Braves, this is a market where the focus should not be on rotation arms, but on finding one or two key bullpen guys. I’ve mentioned already that I’d like to see Martin back. Also adding Will Smith would be an incredible coup, even if no one was signed for the rotation. A bullpen keyed by Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, Chris Martin, and Will Smith before filling in with the depth of young arms the Braves farm system possesses would be an impressive group for sure, potentially one of the deepest in the game.
While free-agent pitching has a fourth tier of bargain relievers, that should be a market that the Braves stay out of, keeping in the top three tiers. That would mean their final free agent tier to pursuit would be the bargain starters whether on a short-term deal or lower annual value than expected or mid-tier relievers. Guys like old friend Alex Wood or a guy like Cole Hamels falling through the market could be a huge value here in the rotation while reliable relievers like Joe Smith, Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard, and Hector Rondon could be excellent targets here, especially if the Braves line up only one reliever in the previous tier.
So, if the Braves’ biggest free agent move is Donaldson and their focus is quantity of quality rather than elite quality in just one or two players, where will the top moves come from this offseason? It is very likely the trade market will provide those moves. We’ll review each team briefly.
Trade partner targets
Los Angeles Angels – Justin Upton, Cam Bedrosian, Hansel Robles
The Angels are looking to go big for local ace Gerrit Cole this offseason and will want to ensure they can afford him. Upton is on the hook for 3 years and $72 million more before his contract is up after 2022, and the Angels would like to open space for top prospect Jo Adell. While his health has not been great, he’s still been a slugging force from the right side when healthy, slugging 42 home runs the last two seasons in 208 games (roughly 33 over 162 games). Bedrosian and Robles are both headed to arbitration with nearly $7 million combined salaries projected between them. The trio would make an excellent buy, potentially getting the relievers below market value by eating some of Upton’s salary.
Astros – Josh Reddick, Kyle Tucker
The Astros will be losing Cole almost certainly, and they will want to replace him in their rotation. The Braves could use any number of pitchers to make a deal for Reddick, though Tucker could require a bit more cost. Reddick will make $13 million in 2020 in the last year of his deal and could be an excellent trade target for someone like Julio Teheran in a straight-up deal.
Athletics – Matt Chapman
Alex Anthopoulos has been known to swing for the fences, and the last time he did just that, he landed an elite young Oakland third baseman on his way to multiple years of MVP consideration. Chapman still is pre-arbitration in 2020, but that will maximize his potential trade value for Oakland. This will be an ungodly expensive deal, likely in the range of something like Ian Anderson, Austin Riley, and 2-3 prospects in the 20-40 range of the list…and that’s probably still on the low end!
Blue Jays – Ken Giles
The Braves tried hard at the deadline, but a late rush of interest pushed the price on Giles too high. While the relief market in free agency is quite good this year – deep in both high-level guys and in mid-level guys to build a bullpen, the Braves could pursue a top relief arm like Giles, who will be in his final season before free agency in 2020.
Brewers – none?
The Brewers really don’t have a piece that would interest me as a Braves target, unless the Brewers look to move Travis Shaw at a significant discount.
Cardinals – Dexter Fowler
When Fowler was a free agent in the 2016-2017 offseason the Atlanta Braves pursued him, but they were not willing to meet the price the Cardinals paid. However, the partnership between Fowler and the Cardinals has never been a great one, to put it lightly. With 2 years and $33 million left on his deal at this point, the Georgia native could be an excellent target for the Braves to finish out his deal. Even in his struggles in St. Louis, he’s averaged 15 homers and 7 steals with a 14% walk rate. Coming home could re-energize him, and the trade cost should not be heavy as the Cardinals have outfield depth that they would like to plug in and moving Fowler would save them significant money.
Cubs – Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber
The case over Bryant’s arbitration has already put a rift between him and the club, and with money getting tight in Chicago against the luxury tax along with a potential $20 million arbitration price tag, Bryant could be found on the trade market. If he wins his case, 2020 will be his final year of arbitration and he’d become a free agent at the end of the season, but if not, he’d be under team control for two seasons. He would obviously be among the priciest trade options on the entire market this offseason. Slightly less pricy would be teammate Schwarber, who is projected to earn $8 million in arbitration. Schwarber has definitely made huge strides defensively in the outfield and would offer left-handed power for the middle of the order, though power that would be more likely to hit .240 with a .340 OBP. If the Cubs were looking to trim other salaries, they do have plenty of arms that could be of interest, but their veteran starters are mostly signed for significant money and/or not performing up to their contracts, so that would not be the route to go for the Braves.
Diamondbacks – David Peralta, Robbie Ray, Archie Bradley
The Diamondbacks are very feasibly heading into a competitive cycle with smart moves and a very talented and deep farm system to back up the MLB roster. It is unlikely they’ll “sell” this offseason, but if they do, the Atlanta Braves should have a definite interest in the three mentioned above, even though it will likely take a heavy prospect pay to move the needle on any one of the three.
Dodgers – Justin Turner, Kenta Maeda, Chris Taylor
If the Braves are unable to sign Donaldson, they could pivot to a move that involved Turner, who will make $20 million in the final year of a 4-year deal in 2020. While the Dodgers certainly have no reason to give up on Turner, moving him could allow one of Gavin Lux or Corey Seager to slide over to third base and the other to remain at short to keep both in the lineup. Beyond that, the depth of the Dodgers pitching could allow a pitcher like Maeda to be available and Taylor is projected to make $5 million in arbitration, so he could be moved if the Dodgers are looking to get under the luxury threshold. The crazy depth the Dodgers have had the last few years is hitting arbitration and more expensive contracts, and in order to avoid losing draft picks and draft pick placement, the team will need to make some decisions financially. Alex Anthopoulos worked in LA and has a relationship with the front office there, so the Braves could end up the beneficiary of any financial trimming going on.
Giants – Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Tony Watson
The Giants are at the start of a rebuild and have some monstrous contracts to move. It’s quite likely that in order to move one of their desirable bullpen arms like Watson or Reyes Moronta, the Giants will insist on unloading some salary. They do have a need for quality outfield defenders to patrol the deep allies in San Francisco’s home park, so moving a guy like Ender Inciarte on a very reasonable deal for one of their large contracts and a reliever could end up being a very good trade-off for the Braves.
Indians – Corey Kluber, Brad Hand, Francisco Lindor, Roberto Perez
This is one of the more underrated things of the 2019 season, but Roberto Perez was quite easily the best defender behind the plate last season in baseball, and it wasn’t really close. He posted 29 defensive runs saved, and only one other catcher in the entire game was within 15 of his total. Add in 24 home runs, and his .239 batting average simply is swept under the rug amidst the rest of his impressive value. The Indians would need to be in a sell mode to move him, however, and that could change things drastically on the Braves match with Cleveland if they are not. Kluber did have his option picked up, but that was a smart move even if the team is going to pare down costs because he would be easily tradeable at his cost. While Lindor would be an amazing get, he’d cost the entire farm to pull off. If he’s even hinted on the market, I do hope the Braves make a huge push for him as a future of Acuna, Albies, and Lindor may be the happiest group of baseball players assembled on one team. Finally, Hand is dominant from the left side and is coming off his worst showing in some time (which was still an elite year). He could be a huge get for the left-handed side of the bullpen.
Mariners – Domingo Santana, Marco Gonzales, Mitch Haniger
Last offseason, while many were banging the drum for Haniger, I was after Santana hard. A year later, Haniger is coming off a year marred by injury (again) and projected to make $3 million in arbitration while Santana clubbed 21 home runs and stole 8 bases over 121 games and will make just a million more. Considering that this will be Haniger’s age 29 season and Santana’s age 27 season, it’s clear which direction I think the team should go, in spite of Santana’s rough reputation in the field (something he cleared up playing alongside Yelich and Cain in Milwaukee and could see similar production alongside Acuna and Pache once the latter reaches the big leagues).
Marlins – Miguel Rojas
The Marlins are stripped quite bare at this point, but one player of intrigue is Rojas, a jack-of-all-trades who can play around the infield. He did sign an extension with the team in September of this year that carries through 2021 with an option for 2022, but the Marlins are also not known for exactly being loyal to a deal, even a recent one, so Rojas could be a prime target for a utility position.
Mets – Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo, Dominic Smith
The Mets actually have an abundance of corner outfield options, which would allow them to potentially move one. The Braves are in the market for a lefty-hitting outfielder for platoon or backup at the least. Nimmo will be first-time arbitration-eligible this offseason and is projected at $1.7 million. Lugo was dominant for the majority of the season in the Mets bullpen and has the ability to pitch in short relief and longer stints as well, making him very valuable if he was able to be attained in a deal. Lugo is projected to earn just short of $2 million in arbitration. While he’s pre-arb, Smith seems to be out of the Mets’ plans long-term, and he is a quality bat that certainly could be an excellent platoon partner at least if the Braves could pry him away.
Nationals – Sean Doolittle, Adam Eaton
The Nationals exercised the options on both Doolittle and Eaton, but with their desire to sign both Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon back, they may need to free up some funds, and if they end up listening on either player, the Braves should definitely be interested.
Orioles – Mychal Givens, Trey Mancini
The Orioles are still early in a multi-year rebuild, so it’s unlikely that players who are in arbitration already are going to be significant parts of the Baltimore future. Givens has been on the team’s radar the past few trade deadlines and could make sense as a bullpen target. Mancini is a poor defender in the outfield (to say the least), but he’s knocked out 83 home runs over the past three seasons while sporting a very solid batting average as well. I didn’t list him, but I really believe that Dylan Bundy could be an intriguing trade target, but I just don’t know that the Braves are the best spot for him.
Padres – Kirby Yates, Austin Hedges, Hunter Renfroe, Franchy Cordero
The Padres and Braves would seem to be ideal trade fits, depending on what Pads GM A.J. Preller has planned for the San Diego offseason. Many have projected that the team will shop Yates, who is due $6.5 million in arbitration this season. The team also has two young catchers that they could slot into the position and move Hedges, projected to earn just under $3 million in arbitration. Both players would be ideal targets. Add in Renfroe, who is also arbitration-eligible, or Cordero, both of whom could get bumped out of their team’s crowded outfield, and there’s a potential major trade here, especially if the Braves are willing to include some top prospects in the deal, which is likely going to be the cost to bring back Yates in a deal.
Phillies – ???
While multiple players on the Phillies would have been targets before they went to Philly, as the Phils are divisional rivals and in a similar point of their team construction as the Braves, it’s unlikely that they will be making moves with players of interest to Atlanta. If they were to give up on Vince Velasquez, I’d love to see him picked up and put into a pure bullpen role, but he’s already projected to make nearly $4 million in arbitration, so that could be an expensive bullpen project. Outside of that, I don’t foresee a move between the clubs.
Pirates – Starling Marte, Keone Kela, Michael Feliz
After coming very close last offseason and at the trade deadline to making deals with the Pirates, a new front office could certainly be a target. While the Braves have had reported interest in Chris Archer when he was in Tampa, contacts in Pittsburgh say he’s never been part of a discussion between the Braves and Pirates, and the Braves have discussed multiple starting pitchers with the Pirates, so the fact his name has not come up is notable. One arm they have had interest in, Jameson Taillon, is returning from injury, so it’s unlikely they’d make a move this offseason for him. Marte is also an oft-rumored target, and while he has the PED suspension in his history (conveniently days after winning a game against the Braves…someday I’ll get over that, maybe), Marte’s $11.5 million 2020 salary and $12.5 million option in 2021 is quite affordable for his skillset. If the Pirates are moving relievers, both Kela and Feliz have incredible raw stuff. Kela’s had some clubhouse issues and Feliz has had control issues in his past, so each has their flags, but both would be worthy targets.
Rangers – Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Jose Leclerc, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields
After a surprising run to finish near .500 when the team was projected to be among the worst in the league, the Rangers low face an offseason where they have to decide if they count on playing above their head again or cash in on what may be career years from certain players and trade them at peak value. Veterans Lance Lynn and Mike Minor could both be on the move after both being among the top 5-10 AL pitchers in WAR last season, something neither is likely to repeat. Minor would be the better fit in Atlanta, a mid-rotation arm from the left side to give the Braves consistent lefty innings. Leclerc just signed a long-term deal last offseason that keeps him quite affordable, so he’d take a big offer, but from sources, he was involved in trade talks between the teams in July, so they were willing to move him then. DeShields is a very good outfield defender with the speed that would fit well on the bench. Mazara would be a guy that I’d prefer to avoid due to defensive deficiencies. Many Braves fans will be looking for Joey Gallo on this list, but after his incredible 2019, the cost will be significant, and while his play was on par with Kris Bryant in 2019, he’s never been at that level before, and whether he can continue that or not is up for debate, especially as he will be returning from injury that cost him the last 10 weeks of the 2019 season.
Rays – Daniel Robertson
With just four players under contract (non-arbitration) for 2020, the Rays aren’t exactly cash-strapped and needing to move anyone, so the move could be to fill a need for them, which could be a number of different areas. One player of intrigue with the Rays personally has been Daniel Robertson, and with a number of quality middle infielders reaching the majors, he could be a potential answer to the need for an additional utility guy, though he’d be more glove than bat for sure.
Red Sox – Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr.
With a new front office in Boston, who knows what the edict will be initially exactly? It’s quite likely that JD Martinez will opt out of his contract, which could end up being enough financial room to keep Mookie Betts and his $30 million arbitration figure, but if the Red Sox do not believe they can re-sign him after 2020, they may prefer an offseason deal this offseason to a fourth-round compensatory draft pick they’d receive if they remain over the luxury tax threshold (the best the Red Sox could do is a pick after Competitive Balance Round B). If the Red Sox are still looking to shed salary but want to hang onto Betts, they may choose to move Bradley, whose defensive excellence would fit well for his final arbitration year before hitting free agency after 2020.
Reds – Raisel Iglesias, Tucker Barnhart, Michael Lorenzen, Jesse Winker
No longer is this the same Reds organization that is a doormat of the entire National League and willing to move anything not bolted down. The team has serious aspirations of competing in 2020, but there are some rumbles on players that the Reds could make available to find a piece they are looking for that could fit with the Braves. One intriguing piece is Barnhart, who is a very quality defender with some pop behind the plate but the Reds have already publicly been linked to multiple free-agent catchers after seeing Curt Casali get more and more time behind the plate as the year wore on in 2019. Winker is a high-OBP hitter with raw power that plays rough defense in the outfield and could end up lost in the outfield shuffle. Lorenzen and Iglesias will cost heavily, but they’re both quality bullpen pieces.
Rockies – Trevor Story, David Dahl, Jon Gray
The Rockies have some very intriguing, high-end pieces, but they’re likely looking to pair one of those pieces with an expensive, lightly-effective (at best) reliever to trim payroll after going all-in on expensive bullpen help before the 2018 season and now staring at $35.5 million in 2020 salary and $40.5 in guarantees left to three relievers that combined for a 6.00 ERA and 30 home runs over 156 innings in 2019 and are all over 30. I would rather not have the Braves tied to any of those relievers, so it’s likely a deal with Colorado won’t happen. If a move for Trevor Story could be made, even if it meant sending Dansby Swanson and a top arm like Max Fried in return, I’d seriously consider that deal. Beyond him, David Dahl has hit well when given a chance but continues to be sat by the team for, well, reasons. Jon Gray intrigues many Braves fans who attempt to argue that getting him out of Coors would help his numbers. The issue with that is that Grah had an ERA nearly a full run higher and allowed more home runs outside of Coors in 2019, and his career ERA is 4.36 at home and 4.56 on the road, so that’s not a one-year anomaly. Making a move to bring in Gray would be odd considering the team already has Mike Foltynewicz on the team, who is a very similar player.
Royals – Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield
The Royals and Atlanta Braves have been a seeming match made in heaven for a number of years, but they again match up very well this offseason. With new ownership on board, it’s not yet clear how the team will be financed, so they could be up for even more of a firesale than some are projecting, but it’s quite likely at least three of the four mentioned above are moved by the 2020 midseason trade deadline. Kennedy has one season left on his deal after emerging as a dominant closer in 2019. Duffy and Perez both have two years left. Perez is coming off a nasty knee injury, so the team would want to pair him with someone that they could rely on and have a solid 3rd option either in AAA or a 3rd catcher on the roster. Duffy will turn 31, and while he had a fairly mediocre overall year, his September was impressive (5 starts, 30 1/3 innings, 2.37 ERA, 0.99 WHIP). Merrifield is a pipe dream, but he had a very good year in 2019 after being one of the 3-5 best players in the American League in 2018, so he could potentially be more attainable this offseason than last, but he’ll still be ridiculously expensive.
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Seemingly the Tigers are a combination of young players who will be part of the next great Detroit squad, short-term players that are easily disposable, and big-contract guys leftover from their previous run that are now being paid much more than their on-field value. Boyd is potentially one of the few that is young and not yet overpaid, but his first half in 2019 likely will have his price much too high for a guy who is a #3 with an elite pitch (slider) that could allow him to have long positive runs, but also could leave him prone to extended slumps as well, much like Patrick Corbin with the Nationals. If the Braves could get him at the right price, he’d be an excellent target. I don’t think he’ll be available at that price.
Twins – Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Trevor May
The Twins planted one outfield flag when they signed Max Kepler to a long-term deal. With the other two members of their young outfield in arbitration, the Twins could look to move one as they have a deep farm system of very talented outfielders. Buxton could be an intriguing target as the Kris Bryant case could have significant implications on his future, and with the health issues that he’s had with the Twins, they may be willing to consider a move. May is entering his last year of arbitration this year, and while he’s only projected at ~$2 million, the Braves could make a significant deal around someone like Mike Foltynewicz or Max Fried to attempt to encourage May’s involvement in the deal for one of the Twins’ outfielders, along with a couple of other pieces from the Braves.
White Sox – Kelvin Herrera, Alex Colome
With the White Sox acquiring both relievers last offseason, it would be surprising to see them trade them this winter already, but the organization has seemingly changed course to some degree with expectations for the club, likely looking more toward 2021-2022 rather than immediate competition. That could put players like Herrera and Colome on the block, and either would be an excellent bullpen addition for the Braves.
Yankees – ??
The Yankees are the last team with not a great trade match for the Braves. Certainly, they’d love to find someone to unload Jacoby Ellsbury‘s contract if they’re looking to trim salary, and if that could bring back Clint Frazier, then great, but Frazier has struggled defensively in the major leagues and hasn’t exactly hit tremendously well either, so the Braves would be taking a chance on a 25-year-old outfielder based on his potential when drafted 6 years ago.
Ben’s Plan for the Atlanta Braves
So, now for the section that you’ve all been waiting on. Or not.
I’m going to operate this section under the assumption of a $140-150 million team budget for 2020, leaving a little room for midseason deals.
Under Contract Already – $57.7M
Ronald Acuna
Ozzie Albies
Freddie Freeman
Ender Inciarte
Mark Melancon
Julio Teheran (option picked up)
I’d decline all options but Julio’s. Even in trade, Ender’s salary and Julio’s salary are lower than market rate.
Arbitration Brought Back – $26.4 (using MLBTR projections)
Johan Camargo
Charlie Culberson
Adam Duvall
Mike Foltynewicz
Shane Greene
Luke Jackson
Dansby Swanson
While not expensive, Dayton and Murphy are my only two non-tenders. Dayton could be a guy traded for a low-tier prospect or included as a third-level piece in one of the following deals if done before the tender deadline.
Pre-Arbitration Players Currently on 40 – $10M
Max Fried
Alex Jackson
A.J. Minter
Sean Newcomb
Rafael Ortega
Austin Riley
Chad Sobotka
Mike Soroka
Touki Toussaint
Jeremy Walker
Jacob Webb
Patrick Weigel
Bryse Wilson
Kyle Wright
Huascar Ynoa
I projected the 15 players listed above at $600K each and then added another $1M to arrive at $10M. The Braves rarely bump a guy beyond minimum until they get to arbitration as standard procedure, so unless someone signs a long-term deal, that number should be pretty comfortable.
Rule 5 Protects – $5.4M
Thomas Burrows
Corbin Clouse
William Contreras
Tucker Davidson
Jasseel De La Cruz
Kurt Hoekstra
Cristian Pache
Phil Pfeifer
Bradley Roney
After arbitration and option decisions, there were 28 players on my Atlanta Braves roster. From there, I chose to protect 9 players from Rule 5. Figuring them at $600K apiece brought the total amount.
Total obligations for 37 players in-house before making any further moves: $99.5M
For my projected budget, this gives me in the range of $40-50M to use in trades and free agency. Let’s take a look at the master plan:
Free agency:
Sign Josh Donaldson for 3 years, $72 million with playing time and awards incentives to bring the deal to $80 million.
If needed to close the deal, a 4th year option with vesting amounts based on games played over the previous two seasons would be a great way to give Josh the 4th year potential while also protecting the team if injury catches back up. He’s priority #1 for this offseason, and with the lack of true impact bats on the market this offseason, he will have plenty of suitors, so paying $24M/year for his age 34-36 seasons will likely be the going rate. That could seem heavy for some, but after what he did in 2019 for the team, he showed he’s still got plenty in the tank at the plate and in the field.
Sign Zack Wheeler for 3 years, $57M with a $22M 4th year option that has a $5M buyout, essentially making the deal $62M guaranteed.
Wheeler is coming off just his third full season, and he’s never pitched 200 innings in a season. That said, when healthy, he’s shown elite stuff, and in 2019, he posted a career-low walk rate (6%) while featuring a career-high in velocity (96.7 average fastball, 91.2 average slider). He’s also a Georgia native, so it would be great to see him don his home state’s uniform. Wheeler has never topped $6M in salary, so something like $15M, $20M, $22M over the three years would be fitting.
Those are the big moves in free agency. Fill-in moves will also be part of adding to the roster. Here are the moves I’m making to fill the roster in this scenario:
Francisco Cervelli – 1/$2.5M
Matt Wieters – 1/$2M
Cameron Maybin – 1/$3M
Joe Smith/Francisco Liriano – 1/$3M
Signing these four would bring veteran presence to the Braves, but it could require designating Rafael Ortega to make room on the 40-man with the following trades.
Trades:
With some excellent trade partners available, I’m going to feel out a few situations, but if the Indians are truly wanting to retool, I’d check on the Kluber price, but I’m guessing he’ll go far too expensive for my taste. Instead, I’m going to fill two roster spots by acquiring a stud defensive catcher and a closer-caliber reliever. If the Indians choose not to tear down, I’ll pivot.
Option 1: Indians focus
Indians deal: Austin Riley, Freddy Tarnok, Greyson Jenista, and Luke Jackson for Brad Hand and Roberto Perez
Giants deal: Ender Inciarte and Corbin Clouse for Tony Watson
Astros deal: Mike Foltynewicz and A.J. Minter for Kyle Tucker and Jose Alberto Rivera
Three deals that really would change the makeup of the organization, but it would be in a very positive direction. The biggest concern for many would be the acquisition of Tucker potentially limiting the ability of Drew Waters to move up to the majors in 2020. Obviously, moving players like Riley hurts, but to get prime players, you have to move prime players.
After these moves, this would be the roster:
40-man roster $142.8M
C (5) – Cervelli, Contreras, Jackson, Perez, Wieters
IF (6) – Albies, Camargo, Culberson, Donaldson, Freeman, Swanson
OF (5) – Acuna, Duvall, Maybin, Pache, Tucker
LHSP (4) – Davidson, Fried, Pfeifer, Newcomb
RHSP (6) – De La Cruz, Soroka, Teheran, Wheeler, Wilson, Wright
LHRP (3) – Burrows, Hand, Watson
RHRP (11) – Greene, Hoekstra, Melancon, Roney, Smith, Sobotka, Toussaint, Walker, Webb, Weigel, Ynoa
26-man projection
C – Perez
1B – Freeman
2B – Albies
3B – Donaldson
SS – Swanson
LF – Duvall
CF – Acuna
RF – Tucker
Bench – Camargo, Culberson, Cervelli, Wieters, Maybin
SP – Wheeler, Teheran, Soroka, Fried, Wright
RP – Hand, Melancon, Greene, Watson, Walker, Sobotka, Newcomb, Smith
Option 2: Padres focus
If the Indians are out of the market (and they very well may be), the focus changes. This is the most likely path, but I’d prefer the Indians deal and path, so if that can be done, I’d be on top of that!
Padres deal: Ian Anderson, Luke Jackson, and Alex Jackson (potentially one more 20-40 level prospect) for Kirby Yates and Austin Hedges.
Mets deal: Ender Inciarte, Mike Foltynewicz, Touki Toussaint, and Greyson Jenista for Noah Syndergaard
Astros deal: Julio Teheran for Josh Reddick
Giants deal: Adam Duvall, AJ Minter, and Jefry Ramos for Tony Watson and Melvin Adon
This is more of the route I would personally like to go, with more home run deals, but it also would take more deals going through, and that makes things more difficult the more you add on deals to an offseason plan. The Mets move may seem like an overpay, but in order to move Syndergaard within the division, the Mets would require a fairly significant, major league ready haul.
With the above trades, here is the final roster:
40-man roster $137.7M
C (4) – Cervelli, Contreras, Hedges, Wieters
IF (6) – Albies, Camargo, Culberson, Donaldson, Freeman, Swanson
OF (5) – Acuna, Maybin, Ortega, Pache, Reddick, Riley
LHSP (4) – Davidson, Fried, Pfeifer, Newcomb
RHSP (6) – De La Cruz, Soroka, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Wilson, Wright
LHRP (4) – Burrows, Clouse, Liriano, Watson
RHRP (11) – Adon, Greene, Hoekstra, Melancon, Roney, Sobotka, Walker, Webb, Weigel, Yates, Ynoa
26-man roster projection
C – Hedges
1B – Freeman
2B – Albies
3B – Donaldson
SS – Swanson
LF – Reddick
CF – Acuna
RF – Riley
Bench – Camargo, Cervelli, Culberson, Maybin, Ortega, Wieters
SP – Fried, Soroka, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Wright
RP – Greene, Liriano, Melancon, Newcomb, Walker, Watson, Yates
That’s it, that’s all. No, not shooting for the moon, not going crazy spending or anything like that. I tried to make this as realistic as possible, sourcing friends who were fans of the teams involved or, where possible, team employees who I knew that could gauge whether a potential trade was in the ballpark. Comment below what you think!
Benjamin Chase
After 6 years of writing for FanSided on various sites and offering contributions to various other websites, family changes have encouraged me to start this site. I spend a ton of time watching baseball at all levels, but I love watching minor league baseball on milb.tv as I'm hours away from the closest minor league team. This is an effort of all those games I enjoy on a daily basis!
