2019 MLB Draft team-by-team strategy – NL East

This is part 3 of my team-by-team review of each team’s strategy for the 2019 MLB draft. Today, we focus on the National League East, a division that entered 2019 with hopes of 4 of the teams fighting for the division lead. That hasn’t played out this year so far, but much like the division race the rest of the way in this division, the draft among these teams could be very intriguing to watch!

Atlanta Braves

2018 Record: 90-72 (lost NLDS)
Bonus Pool: $11,532,200
Day 1 selections: 3 (9, 21, 60)
Day 2 selections: 8 (98, 127, 157, 187, 217, 247, 277, 307)

Draft Strategy

This draft could be a very interesting one to watch the work of Alex Anthopoulos. Many Braves fans lamented not signing Carter Stewart at pick #8 last June, but having a first-round pick is not something new to Anthopoulos. In his time with Toronto, Alex saw three prep arms not sign over six drafts.

Anthopoulos was also the GM who drafted Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Joe Musgrove, Daniel Norris, Anthony DeSclafani, and Marcus Stroman, among many others who did sign with the Jays and were either contributors at the major league level or key trade chips, so his eye for pitching talent and willingness to gamble on a top arm fits well with the Braves rebuild. Finding out that the team will not lose their selection if the #9 pick does not sign this year (a rule that previously existed) could allow Anthopoulos to be very aggressive at #9.

With that, the Braves have been spotted at all of the top arms, but especially heavy at Matthew Allan’s games of late. The team has also scouted collegiate infielders heavily this season, especially a group of ACC infielders – Logan Davidson, Will Wilson, Tyler Fitzgerald, Tanner Morris – that may not all be first-round or first-day guys, but could all come into play as the draft plays on.

With technically no international bonus pool this season, which means the team cannot sign a single international player over $10K, the Braves will be looking to make a big impact in this draft, and they’ve already had internal discussions about multiple options to allow the team to maximize potential return on this draft, including the option to pursue Navy ace Noah Song, whose military commitment will likely cause him to at least fall to day 2, if not day 3, but his raw talent is among the top 2-3 college pitchers in this year’s draft.

Miami Marlins

2018 Record: 63-98
Bonus Pool: $13,045,000
Day 1 selections: 3 (4, 35, 46)
Day 2 selections: 8 (82, 111, 141, 171, 201, 231, 261, 291)

Draft Strategy

Though they select 4th overall, the Marlins have the 3rd highest draft pool available per selection, which should allow them to really impact their farm system with this draft. Right now, there are two strikes recently that are working against the scouting department’s ability to focus in this draft.

First, the team’s teardown trades did not go nearly as well as hoped. It is early for sure, and there are some signs that players like Zac Gallen and Jordan Yamamoto could be excellent finds in their recent deals, but the big name prospects acquired when the Marlins dealt away arguably the most talented outfield in baseball really have not given the team prospect production.

Second, and most important for the draft with a top 5 pick, is that the scouting department and General Manager don’t seem to have the same idea what will be the best direction to go with the #4 pick as the ownership and upper brass. The GM and scouting department are the ones who have had boots on the ground, and they should get the chance to have the stronger voice in the room, but they also have to worry on their jobs if they choose against the guys who make decisions about their future employment.

The current debate seems to be whether to pursue an elite high school talent with #4 (ownership) or to draft one of the elite college bats in this year’s draft (GM/scouting). Going for the top talent gives the best chance of getting a superstar player, but I would personally support the scouting department’s angle, as the Marlins could be a dominant force at every draft pick by picking a college bat at #4. Already nearly equal to the Orioles in average slot money per pick, the Orioles will eat up a lot of their slot money with the first overall pick, likely taking over half of their $13.8M pool. The Marlins could pick three spots later each round the rest of the first two days with more money to use on each selection, which is a huge advantage.

New York Mets

2018 Record: 77-85
Bonus Pool: $8,224,600
Day 1 selections: 2 (12, 53)
Day 2 selections: 8 (89, 118, 148, 178, 208, 238, 268, 298)

Draft Strategy

The Mets are drafting 12th in June, but they sit right in the middle of bonus pools and average bonus pool per pick, so they can’t exactly go hog-wild. That said, they have done very well recently targeting two markets that could be potential buys in this draft – college pitching and upside high school bats.

The offseason stripped away a few of the top prospects in the Mets system, but this is far from a barren group, and an influx led by a top-flight collegiate pick at 12 along with a focus on affordable upside from that point forward could be a very good strategy.

One thing to consider is the speed of movement of the college bats and the chance to contribute to the team before their current top arms either leave via free agency or age past their prime. That could make players like Baylor’s Shea Langeliers, Texas Tech’s Josh Jung, or potentially outfielders JJ Bleday of Vanderbilt or Hunter Bishop of Arizona State very attractive options if they fall to 12.

With a deep college hitting class, the Mets could actually attempt to capitalize early on multiple college bats in the first four rounds.

Philadelphia Phillies

2018 Record: 80-82
Bonus Pool: $6,475,800
Day 1 selections: 1 (14)
Day 2 selections: 8 (91, 120, 150, 180, 210, 240, 270, 300)

Draft Strategy

The Phillies played at the top end of the free agent market this offseason, willing to give up draft picks to bring in top talent, but they ended up only sacrificing one selection in the end (along with $500K in international funds for the upcoming period) to bring in Bryce Harper in the largest free agent contract ever signed.

Now, the Phillies look to replenish a farm system that was used heavily in acquisitions over the offseason and in a failed playoff run last season in a draft where they have just two selections in the top 100 picks, and just one of those is in the top 90. The benefit is that both the college hitting and college pitching classes are deep this year, and that could bode well for the Phillies on the second and third days of the draft.

With their first pick, the Phillies seem primed to be in a spot where they could pick up an excellent collegiate bat that is falling or one of the top 2-3 college arms, which should be a very good grab at that spot.

Washington Nationals

2018 Record: 82-80
Bonus Pool: $5,979,600
Day 1 selections: 1 (17)
Day 2 selections: 8 (94, 123, 153, 183, 213, 243, 273, 303)

Draft Strategy

The combination of Bryce Harper leaving and signing Patrick Corbin actually cost the Washington Nationals a draft pick and $1 million in international signing dollars for the upcoming period. Due to that, the Nationals have just one selection on the first day, and just two in the top 100, with the second coming at #94.

Their low signing pool could potentially lean the team toward an upside college selection at #17, but the Nationals have never shied away from any player, and with recent injury news on top left-handed prep starter Hunter Barco, many have speculated that he could be an ideal fit for the top pick for the Nationals, with their penchant for selecting and developing injured pitchers and developing them, and the likelihood that Barco would be able to be signed for less than slot at #17 due to the fact that he’d likely fall significantly below that spot if not picked by the Nationals.

Beyond targeting upside with value at #17, the Nationals will want to find as much talent for the dollar as possible in day 2 and day 3 of the draft, which is something that their scouting department really does not get enough credit for in many circles.

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